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Major agricultural changes required to mitigate phosphorus losses under climate change

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal article

Article number161
<mark>Journal publication date</mark>31/07/2017
<mark>Journal</mark>Nature Communications
Number of pages8
Publication statusPublished
Original languageEnglish


Phosphorus (P) losses from land to water will be impacted by climate change and land management for food production, with detrimental impacts on aquatic ecosystems. Here we use a unique combination of methods to evaluate the impact of projected climate change on future P transfers, and to assess what scale of agricultural change would be needed to mitigate these transfers. We combine novel high frequency P flux data from three representative catchments across the UK, a new high spatial resolution climate model, uncertainty estimates from an ensemble of future climate simulations, two P transfer models of contrasting complexity and a simplified representation of the potential intensification of agriculture based on expert elicitation from land managers. We show that the effect of climate change on average winter P loads (predicted increase up to 30% by 2050s) will be limited only by large scale agricultural changes (e.g. 20-80% reduction in P inputs).