Rights statement: http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayJournal?jid=HYG The final, definitive version of this article has been published in the Journal, Epidemiology & Infection, 141 (4), pp 687-696 2013, © 2013 Cambridge University Press.
Final published version, 258 KB, PDF document
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Meteorological conditions and incidence of Legionnaires’ disease in Glasgow, Scotland
T2 - application of statistical modelling
AU - Dunn, Christine E.
AU - Rowlingson, Barry
AU - Bhopal, R. S.
AU - Diggle, Peter
PY - 2013/4
Y1 - 2013/4
N2 - This study investigated the relationships between Legionnaires’ disease (LD) incidence and weather in Glasgow, UK, by using advanced statistical methods. Using daily meteorological data and 78 LD cases with known exact date of onset, we fitted a series of Poisson log-linear regression models with explanatory variables for air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and year, and sine-cosine terms for within-year seasonal variation. Our initial model showed an association between LD incidence and 2-day lagged humidity (positive, P=0.0236) and wind speed (negative, P=0.033). However, after adjusting for year-by-year and seasonal variation in cases there were no significant associations with weather. We also used normal linear models to assess the importance of short-term, unseasonable weather values. The most significant association was between LD incidence and air temperature residual lagged by 1 day prior to onset (P=0.0014). The contextual role of unseasonably high air temperatures is worthy of further investigation. Our methods and results have further advanced understanding of the role which weather plays in risk of LD infection.
AB - This study investigated the relationships between Legionnaires’ disease (LD) incidence and weather in Glasgow, UK, by using advanced statistical methods. Using daily meteorological data and 78 LD cases with known exact date of onset, we fitted a series of Poisson log-linear regression models with explanatory variables for air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and year, and sine-cosine terms for within-year seasonal variation. Our initial model showed an association between LD incidence and 2-day lagged humidity (positive, P=0.0236) and wind speed (negative, P=0.033). However, after adjusting for year-by-year and seasonal variation in cases there were no significant associations with weather. We also used normal linear models to assess the importance of short-term, unseasonable weather values. The most significant association was between LD incidence and air temperature residual lagged by 1 day prior to onset (P=0.0014). The contextual role of unseasonably high air temperatures is worthy of further investigation. Our methods and results have further advanced understanding of the role which weather plays in risk of LD infection.
KW - Legionnaires' disease
KW - statistics
U2 - 10.1017/S095026881200101X
DO - 10.1017/S095026881200101X
M3 - Journal article
VL - 141
SP - 687
EP - 696
JO - Epidemiology and Infection
JF - Epidemiology and Infection
SN - 0950-2688
IS - 4
ER -