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Mixed picture for changes in stable malaria distribution with future climate in Africa.

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Mixed picture for changes in stable malaria distribution with future climate in Africa. / Thomas, Christopher J.; Davies, Gemma; Dunn, Christine E.
In: Trends in Parasitology, Vol. 20, No. 5, 01.05.2004, p. 216-220.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/MagazineJournal articlepeer-review

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Thomas CJ, Davies G, Dunn CE. Mixed picture for changes in stable malaria distribution with future climate in Africa. Trends in Parasitology. 2004 May 1;20(5):216-220. doi: 10.1016/j.pt.2004.03.001

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Thomas, Christopher J. ; Davies, Gemma ; Dunn, Christine E. / Mixed picture for changes in stable malaria distribution with future climate in Africa. In: Trends in Parasitology. 2004 ; Vol. 20, No. 5. pp. 216-220.

Bibtex

@article{62b154903bca498993e1ba8b4d6c0000,
title = "Mixed picture for changes in stable malaria distribution with future climate in Africa.",
abstract = "Our models indicate that in the next 30{\^a}��40 years, the effects of climate change on stable falciparum malaria zones in Africa are probably complex and spatially heterogeneous, and that range contractions are more likely than expansions. Notably, we did not find evidence that the highlands are particularly vulnerable to change in this period. It is only by the second half of this century that increases in the potential for stable transmission in the highlands due to climate change were projected to be strong and, even here, the response was patchy. While not denying the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to reduce long-term adverse impact, we suggest that climate change is unlikely to lead to widespread expansion in the distribution of stable malaria in Africa during the next few decades.",
author = "Thomas, {Christopher J.} and Gemma Davies and Dunn, {Christine E.}",
year = "2004",
month = may,
day = "1",
doi = "10.1016/j.pt.2004.03.001",
language = "English",
volume = "20",
pages = "216--220",
journal = "Trends in Parasitology",
issn = "1471-4922",
publisher = "Elsevier Limited",
number = "5",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Mixed picture for changes in stable malaria distribution with future climate in Africa.

AU - Thomas, Christopher J.

AU - Davies, Gemma

AU - Dunn, Christine E.

PY - 2004/5/1

Y1 - 2004/5/1

N2 - Our models indicate that in the next 30�40 years, the effects of climate change on stable falciparum malaria zones in Africa are probably complex and spatially heterogeneous, and that range contractions are more likely than expansions. Notably, we did not find evidence that the highlands are particularly vulnerable to change in this period. It is only by the second half of this century that increases in the potential for stable transmission in the highlands due to climate change were projected to be strong and, even here, the response was patchy. While not denying the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to reduce long-term adverse impact, we suggest that climate change is unlikely to lead to widespread expansion in the distribution of stable malaria in Africa during the next few decades.

AB - Our models indicate that in the next 30�40 years, the effects of climate change on stable falciparum malaria zones in Africa are probably complex and spatially heterogeneous, and that range contractions are more likely than expansions. Notably, we did not find evidence that the highlands are particularly vulnerable to change in this period. It is only by the second half of this century that increases in the potential for stable transmission in the highlands due to climate change were projected to be strong and, even here, the response was patchy. While not denying the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to reduce long-term adverse impact, we suggest that climate change is unlikely to lead to widespread expansion in the distribution of stable malaria in Africa during the next few decades.

U2 - 10.1016/j.pt.2004.03.001

DO - 10.1016/j.pt.2004.03.001

M3 - Journal article

VL - 20

SP - 216

EP - 220

JO - Trends in Parasitology

JF - Trends in Parasitology

SN - 1471-4922

IS - 5

ER -