Rights statement: This is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology, 19, 2016 DOI: 10.1016/j.sste.2016.10.001
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Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Modeling of spatio-temporal variation in plague incidence in Madagascar from 1980 to 2007
AU - Giorgi, Emanuele
AU - Kreppel, Katharina
AU - Diggle, Peter John
AU - Caminade, Cyril
AU - Ratsitorahina, Maherisoa
AU - Rajerison, Minoarisoa
AU - Baylis, Matthew
N1 - This is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology, 19, 2016 DOI: 10.1016/j.sste.2016.10.001
PY - 2016/11
Y1 - 2016/11
N2 - Plague is an infectious disease caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, which, during the fourteenth century, caused the deaths of an estimated 75–200 million people in Europe. Plague epidemics still occur in Africa, Asia and South America. Madagascar is today one of the most endemic countries, reporting nearly one third of the human cases worldwide from 2004 to 2009. The persistence of plague in Madagascar is associated with environmental and climatic conditions. In this paper we present a case study of the spatio-temporal analysis of plague incidence in Madagascar from 1980 to 2007. We study the relationship of plague with temperature and precipitation anomalies, and with elevation. A joint spatio-temporal analysis of the data proves to be computationally intractable. We therefore develop a spatio-temporal log-Gaussian Cox process model, but then carry out marginal temporal and spatial analyses. We also introduce a spatially discrete approximation for Gaussian processes, whose parameters retain a spatially continuous interpretation. We find evidence of a cumulative effect, over time, of temperature anomalies on plague incidence, and of a very high relative risk of plague occurrence for locations above 800 m in elevation. Our approach provides a useful modeling framework to assess the relationship between exposures and plague risk, irrespective of the spatial resolution at which the latter has been recorded.
AB - Plague is an infectious disease caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, which, during the fourteenth century, caused the deaths of an estimated 75–200 million people in Europe. Plague epidemics still occur in Africa, Asia and South America. Madagascar is today one of the most endemic countries, reporting nearly one third of the human cases worldwide from 2004 to 2009. The persistence of plague in Madagascar is associated with environmental and climatic conditions. In this paper we present a case study of the spatio-temporal analysis of plague incidence in Madagascar from 1980 to 2007. We study the relationship of plague with temperature and precipitation anomalies, and with elevation. A joint spatio-temporal analysis of the data proves to be computationally intractable. We therefore develop a spatio-temporal log-Gaussian Cox process model, but then carry out marginal temporal and spatial analyses. We also introduce a spatially discrete approximation for Gaussian processes, whose parameters retain a spatially continuous interpretation. We find evidence of a cumulative effect, over time, of temperature anomalies on plague incidence, and of a very high relative risk of plague occurrence for locations above 800 m in elevation. Our approach provides a useful modeling framework to assess the relationship between exposures and plague risk, irrespective of the spatial resolution at which the latter has been recorded.
KW - Cox process
KW - Distributed lag-model
KW - Gaussian process
KW - Plague
KW - Spatio-temporal point pattern
U2 - 10.1016/j.sste.2016.10.001
DO - 10.1016/j.sste.2016.10.001
M3 - Journal article
VL - 19
SP - 125
EP - 135
JO - Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology
JF - Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology
SN - 1877-5845
ER -