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Modelling uncertainty in estimates of recharge to a shallow coastal aquifer.

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal article

Published

Journal publication date04/1997
JournalHydrological Sciences Journal
Journal number2
Volume42
Number of pages14
Pages155-168
Original languageEnglish

Abstract

Due to the difficulty of field characterization, one is often forced to employ hydrological models in order to determine estimates of aquifer recharge. A Geographical Information System (GIS) and Digital Elevation Model (DEM) may provide the basic support for such hydrological models. Unfortunately, despite the availability of these tools, the values of many parameters within distributed models remain uncertain for application to real world problems. Using the Bisagno basin (100km2) in the Liguria region of Italy, the role of model parameter uncertainty on estimates of recharge to the Bisagno Aquifer is demonstrated. Uncertainty estimation is achieved through Monte Carlo simulations with the aid of the Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation procedure of Beven & Binley (1992).