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Multi-model Impacts of Climate Change on Pollution Transport from Global Emission Source Regions

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Multi-model Impacts of Climate Change on Pollution Transport from Global Emission Source Regions. / Doherty, Ruth M.; Orbe, Clara; Zeng, Guang; Plummer, David A; Prather, Michael J.; Wild, Oliver; Lin, Meiyun; Shindell, Drew T.; MacKenzie, Ian A.

In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics , Vol. 17, 30.11.2017, p. 14219-14237.

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articlepeer-review

Harvard

Doherty, RM, Orbe, C, Zeng, G, Plummer, DA, Prather, MJ, Wild, O, Lin, M, Shindell, DT & MacKenzie, IA 2017, 'Multi-model Impacts of Climate Change on Pollution Transport from Global Emission Source Regions', Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics , vol. 17, pp. 14219-14237. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-14219-2017

APA

Doherty, R. M., Orbe, C., Zeng, G., Plummer, D. A., Prather, M. J., Wild, O., Lin, M., Shindell, D. T., & MacKenzie, I. A. (2017). Multi-model Impacts of Climate Change on Pollution Transport from Global Emission Source Regions. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics , 17, 14219-14237. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-14219-2017

Vancouver

Doherty RM, Orbe C, Zeng G, Plummer DA, Prather MJ, Wild O et al. Multi-model Impacts of Climate Change on Pollution Transport from Global Emission Source Regions. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics . 2017 Nov 30;17:14219-14237. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-14219-2017

Author

Doherty, Ruth M. ; Orbe, Clara ; Zeng, Guang ; Plummer, David A ; Prather, Michael J. ; Wild, Oliver ; Lin, Meiyun ; Shindell, Drew T. ; MacKenzie, Ian A. / Multi-model Impacts of Climate Change on Pollution Transport from Global Emission Source Regions. In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics . 2017 ; Vol. 17. pp. 14219-14237.

Bibtex

@article{88f6774c9b0846ad91a4288d12fbbcf0,
title = "Multi-model Impacts of Climate Change on Pollution Transport from Global Emission Source Regions",
abstract = "The impacts of climate change on tropospheric transport, diagnosed from a carbon monoxide (CO)-like tracer species emitted from global CO sources, are evaluated from an ensemble of four chemistry-climate model (CCMs) contributing to the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). Model time-slice simulations for present-day and end of the 21st century conditions were performed under the Representative Concentrations Pathways (RCP) climate scenario RCP 8.5. All simulations reveal a strong seasonality in transport, especially over the tropics. The highest CO-tracer mixing ratios aloft occur during boreal winter when strong vertical transport is co-located with biomass burning emission source regions. A consistent and robust decrease in future CO-tracer mixing ratios throughout most of the troposphere, especially in the tropics, and an increase around the tropopause is found across the four CCMs in both winter and summer. Decreases in CO-tracer mixing ratios in the tropical troposphere are associated with reduced convective mass fluxes in this region, which in turn may reflect a weaker Hadley Cell circulation in the future climate. Increases in CO-tracer mixing ratios near the tropopause are largely attributable to a rise in tropopause height enabling lofting to higher altitudes, although a poleward shift in the mid-latitude jets may also play a minor role in the extra-tropical upper troposphere. An increase in CO-tracer mixing ratios also occurs near the Equator, centred over equatorial and Central Africa, extending from the surface to the mid-troposphere. This is most likely related to localised decreases in convection in the vicinity of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), resulting in larger CO-tracer mixing ratios over biomass burning regions and smaller mixing ratios downwind.",
keywords = "Ozone, Atmospheric transport, Atmospheric modelling, Climate change",
author = "Doherty, {Ruth M.} and Clara Orbe and Guang Zeng and Plummer, {David A} and Prather, {Michael J.} and Oliver Wild and Meiyun Lin and Shindell, {Drew T.} and MacKenzie, {Ian A.}",
year = "2017",
month = nov,
day = "30",
doi = "10.5194/acp-17-14219-2017",
language = "English",
volume = "17",
pages = "14219--14237",
journal = "Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ",
issn = "1680-7316",
publisher = "Copernicus GmbH (Copernicus Publications) on behalf of the European Geosciences Union (EGU)",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Multi-model Impacts of Climate Change on Pollution Transport from Global Emission Source Regions

AU - Doherty, Ruth M.

AU - Orbe, Clara

AU - Zeng, Guang

AU - Plummer, David A

AU - Prather, Michael J.

AU - Wild, Oliver

AU - Lin, Meiyun

AU - Shindell, Drew T.

AU - MacKenzie, Ian A.

PY - 2017/11/30

Y1 - 2017/11/30

N2 - The impacts of climate change on tropospheric transport, diagnosed from a carbon monoxide (CO)-like tracer species emitted from global CO sources, are evaluated from an ensemble of four chemistry-climate model (CCMs) contributing to the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). Model time-slice simulations for present-day and end of the 21st century conditions were performed under the Representative Concentrations Pathways (RCP) climate scenario RCP 8.5. All simulations reveal a strong seasonality in transport, especially over the tropics. The highest CO-tracer mixing ratios aloft occur during boreal winter when strong vertical transport is co-located with biomass burning emission source regions. A consistent and robust decrease in future CO-tracer mixing ratios throughout most of the troposphere, especially in the tropics, and an increase around the tropopause is found across the four CCMs in both winter and summer. Decreases in CO-tracer mixing ratios in the tropical troposphere are associated with reduced convective mass fluxes in this region, which in turn may reflect a weaker Hadley Cell circulation in the future climate. Increases in CO-tracer mixing ratios near the tropopause are largely attributable to a rise in tropopause height enabling lofting to higher altitudes, although a poleward shift in the mid-latitude jets may also play a minor role in the extra-tropical upper troposphere. An increase in CO-tracer mixing ratios also occurs near the Equator, centred over equatorial and Central Africa, extending from the surface to the mid-troposphere. This is most likely related to localised decreases in convection in the vicinity of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), resulting in larger CO-tracer mixing ratios over biomass burning regions and smaller mixing ratios downwind.

AB - The impacts of climate change on tropospheric transport, diagnosed from a carbon monoxide (CO)-like tracer species emitted from global CO sources, are evaluated from an ensemble of four chemistry-climate model (CCMs) contributing to the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). Model time-slice simulations for present-day and end of the 21st century conditions were performed under the Representative Concentrations Pathways (RCP) climate scenario RCP 8.5. All simulations reveal a strong seasonality in transport, especially over the tropics. The highest CO-tracer mixing ratios aloft occur during boreal winter when strong vertical transport is co-located with biomass burning emission source regions. A consistent and robust decrease in future CO-tracer mixing ratios throughout most of the troposphere, especially in the tropics, and an increase around the tropopause is found across the four CCMs in both winter and summer. Decreases in CO-tracer mixing ratios in the tropical troposphere are associated with reduced convective mass fluxes in this region, which in turn may reflect a weaker Hadley Cell circulation in the future climate. Increases in CO-tracer mixing ratios near the tropopause are largely attributable to a rise in tropopause height enabling lofting to higher altitudes, although a poleward shift in the mid-latitude jets may also play a minor role in the extra-tropical upper troposphere. An increase in CO-tracer mixing ratios also occurs near the Equator, centred over equatorial and Central Africa, extending from the surface to the mid-troposphere. This is most likely related to localised decreases in convection in the vicinity of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), resulting in larger CO-tracer mixing ratios over biomass burning regions and smaller mixing ratios downwind.

KW - Ozone

KW - Atmospheric transport

KW - Atmospheric modelling

KW - Climate change

U2 - 10.5194/acp-17-14219-2017

DO - 10.5194/acp-17-14219-2017

M3 - Journal article

VL - 17

SP - 14219

EP - 14237

JO - Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics

JF - Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics

SN - 1680-7316

ER -