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  • ShtEtAl_20190122

    Rights statement: This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Shooter, R, Ross, E, Tawn, J, Jonathan, P. On spatial conditional extremes for ocean storm severity. Environmetrics. 2019;e2562. https://doi.org/10.1002/env.2562 which has been published in final form at https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/action/showCitFormats?doi=10.1002%2Fenv.2562 This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance With Wiley Terms and Conditions for self-archiving.

    Accepted author manuscript, 1 MB, PDF-document

    Embargo ends: 26/02/20

    Available under license: CC BY-NC: Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License

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On spatial conditional extremes for ocean storm severity

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal article

E-pub ahead of print
<mark>Journal publication date</mark>26/02/2019
<mark>Journal</mark>Environmetrics
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print
Early online date26/02/19
Original languageEnglish

Abstract

We describe a model for the conditional dependence of a spatial process measured at one or more remote locations given extreme values of the process at a conditioning location, motivated by the conditional extremes methodology of Heffernan and Tawn. Compared to alternative descriptions in terms of max‐stable spatial processes, the model is advantageous because it is conceptually straightforward and admits different forms of extremal dependence (including asymptotic dependence and asymptotic independence). We use the model within a Bayesian framework to estimate the extremal dependence of ocean storm severity (quantified using significant wave height, HS) for locations on spatial transects with approximate east–west (E‐W) and north–south (N‐S) orientations in the northern North Sea (NNS) and central North Sea (CNS). For HS on the standard Laplace marginal scale, the conditional extremes “linear slope” parameter α decays approximately exponentially with distance for all transects. Furthermore, the decay of mean dependence with distance is found to be faster in CNS than NNS. The persistence of mean dependence is greatest for the E‐W transect in NNS, potentially because this transect is approximately aligned with the direction of propagation of the most severe storms in the region.

Bibliographic note

This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Shooter, R, Ross, E, Tawn, J, Jonathan, P. On spatial conditional extremes for ocean storm severity. Environmetrics. 2019;e2562. https://doi.org/10.1002/env.2562 which has been published in final form at https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/action/showCitFormats?doi=10.1002%2Fenv.2562 This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance With Wiley Terms and Conditions for self-archiving.