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On the colour and spin of epistemic error (and what we might do about it)

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal article

Published

Journal publication date2011
JournalHydrology and Earth System Sciences and Discussions
Volume15
Number of pages11
Pages3123-3133
Original languageEnglish

Abstract

Disinformation as a result of epistemic error is
an issue in hydrological modelling. In particular the way in
which the colour in model residuals resulting from epistemic
errors should be expected to be non-stationary means that
it is difficult to justify the spin that the structure of residuals
can be properly represented by statistical likelihood functions.
To do so would be to greatly overestimate the information
content in a set of calibration data and increase the
possibility of both Type I and Type II errors. Some principles
of trying to identify periods of disinformative data prior
to evaluation of a model structure of interest, are discussed.
An example demonstrates the effect on the estimated parameter
values of a hydrological model.

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