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On the colour and spin of epistemic error (and what we might do about it)

Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

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On the colour and spin of epistemic error (and what we might do about it). / Beven, Keith; Smith, Paul; Wood, Andrew.
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 15, 2011, p. 3123-3133.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

Harvard

Beven, K, Smith, P & Wood, A 2011, 'On the colour and spin of epistemic error (and what we might do about it)', Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, vol. 15, pp. 3123-3133. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-3123-2011

APA

Beven, K., Smith, P., & Wood, A. (2011). On the colour and spin of epistemic error (and what we might do about it). Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 3123-3133. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-3123-2011

Vancouver

Beven K, Smith P, Wood A. On the colour and spin of epistemic error (and what we might do about it). Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. 2011;15:3123-3133. doi: 10.5194/hess-15-3123-2011

Author

Beven, Keith ; Smith, Paul ; Wood, Andrew. / On the colour and spin of epistemic error (and what we might do about it). In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. 2011 ; Vol. 15. pp. 3123-3133.

Bibtex

@article{6d2099899ed14ecf9287ea4100b2902f,
title = "On the colour and spin of epistemic error (and what we might do about it)",
abstract = "Disinformation as a result of epistemic error isan issue in hydrological modelling. In particular the way inwhich the colour in model residuals resulting from epistemicerrors should be expected to be non-stationary means thatit is difficult to justify the spin that the structure of residualscan be properly represented by statistical likelihood functions.To do so would be to greatly overestimate the informationcontent in a set of calibration data and increase thepossibility of both Type I and Type II errors. Some principlesof trying to identify periods of disinformative data priorto evaluation of a model structure of interest, are discussed.An example demonstrates the effect on the estimated parametervalues of a hydrological model.",
keywords = "hydrological modelling, Disinformation, uncertainty estimation, parameter identification",
author = "Keith Beven and Paul Smith and Andrew Wood",
year = "2011",
doi = "10.5194/hess-15-3123-2011",
language = "English",
volume = "15",
pages = "3123--3133",
journal = "Hydrology and Earth System Sciences",
issn = "1027-5606",
publisher = "Copernicus Gesellschaft mbH",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - On the colour and spin of epistemic error (and what we might do about it)

AU - Beven, Keith

AU - Smith, Paul

AU - Wood, Andrew

PY - 2011

Y1 - 2011

N2 - Disinformation as a result of epistemic error isan issue in hydrological modelling. In particular the way inwhich the colour in model residuals resulting from epistemicerrors should be expected to be non-stationary means thatit is difficult to justify the spin that the structure of residualscan be properly represented by statistical likelihood functions.To do so would be to greatly overestimate the informationcontent in a set of calibration data and increase thepossibility of both Type I and Type II errors. Some principlesof trying to identify periods of disinformative data priorto evaluation of a model structure of interest, are discussed.An example demonstrates the effect on the estimated parametervalues of a hydrological model.

AB - Disinformation as a result of epistemic error isan issue in hydrological modelling. In particular the way inwhich the colour in model residuals resulting from epistemicerrors should be expected to be non-stationary means thatit is difficult to justify the spin that the structure of residualscan be properly represented by statistical likelihood functions.To do so would be to greatly overestimate the informationcontent in a set of calibration data and increase thepossibility of both Type I and Type II errors. Some principlesof trying to identify periods of disinformative data priorto evaluation of a model structure of interest, are discussed.An example demonstrates the effect on the estimated parametervalues of a hydrological model.

KW - hydrological modelling

KW - Disinformation

KW - uncertainty estimation

KW - parameter identification

U2 - 10.5194/hess-15-3123-2011

DO - 10.5194/hess-15-3123-2011

M3 - Journal article

VL - 15

SP - 3123

EP - 3133

JO - Hydrology and Earth System Sciences

JF - Hydrology and Earth System Sciences

SN - 1027-5606

ER -