Home > Research > Publications & Outputs > On the complexity and accuracy of geographic pr...

Research

Associated organisational units

Links

Text available via DOI:

Keywords

View graph of relations

On the complexity and accuracy of geographic profiling strategies

Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

Published

Standard

On the complexity and accuracy of geographic profiling strategies. / Taylor, P. J.; Bennell, C.; Snook, B. et al.
In: Journal of Quantitative Criminology, Vol. 21, No. 1, 01.01.2005, p. 1-26.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

Harvard

Taylor, PJ, Bennell, C, Snook, B & Zito, M 2005, 'On the complexity and accuracy of geographic profiling strategies', Journal of Quantitative Criminology, vol. 21, no. 1, pp. 1-26. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10940-004-1785-4

APA

Taylor, P. J., Bennell, C., Snook, B., & Zito, M. (2005). On the complexity and accuracy of geographic profiling strategies. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 21(1), 1-26. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10940-004-1785-4

Vancouver

Taylor PJ, Bennell C, Snook B, Zito M. On the complexity and accuracy of geographic profiling strategies. Journal of Quantitative Criminology. 2005 Jan 1;21(1):1-26. doi: 10.1007/s10940-004-1785-4

Author

Taylor, P. J. ; Bennell, C. ; Snook, B. et al. / On the complexity and accuracy of geographic profiling strategies. In: Journal of Quantitative Criminology. 2005 ; Vol. 21, No. 1. pp. 1-26.

Bibtex

@article{8ce02869848b491c95504a720298e482,
title = "On the complexity and accuracy of geographic profiling strategies",
abstract = "Geographic profilers have access to a repertoire of strategies for predicting a serial offenders home location. These strategies range in complexity—some involve more calculations to implement than others—and the assumption often made is that more complex strategies will outperform simpler strategies. In the present study, we tested the relationship between the complexity and accuracy of 11 strategies. Data were crime site and home locations of 16 UK residential burglars who had committed 10 or more crimes each. The results indicated that strategy complexity was not positively related to accuracy. This was also found to be the case across tasks that ranged in complexity (where complexity was determined by the number of crimes used to make a prediction). Implications for police policies and procedures, as well as our understanding of human decision-making, are discussed.",
keywords = "geographic profiling, complexity , accuracy , serial burglary , CrimeStat, decision-making",
author = "Taylor, {P. J.} and C. Bennell and B. Snook and M. Zito",
note = "Taylor conducted the analysis with Zito (Computer Science, Liverpool) and shared lead authorship of the manuscript with Snook and Bennell. Taylor presented the research at SPCP in 2005 where it won the Earl Scheafer Best Research Paper Award. RAE_import_type : Journal article RAE_uoa_type : Psychology",
year = "2005",
month = jan,
day = "1",
doi = "10.1007/s10940-004-1785-4",
language = "English",
volume = "21",
pages = "1--26",
journal = "Journal of Quantitative Criminology",
issn = "0748-4518",
publisher = "Springer New York",
number = "1",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - On the complexity and accuracy of geographic profiling strategies

AU - Taylor, P. J.

AU - Bennell, C.

AU - Snook, B.

AU - Zito, M.

N1 - Taylor conducted the analysis with Zito (Computer Science, Liverpool) and shared lead authorship of the manuscript with Snook and Bennell. Taylor presented the research at SPCP in 2005 where it won the Earl Scheafer Best Research Paper Award. RAE_import_type : Journal article RAE_uoa_type : Psychology

PY - 2005/1/1

Y1 - 2005/1/1

N2 - Geographic profilers have access to a repertoire of strategies for predicting a serial offenders home location. These strategies range in complexity—some involve more calculations to implement than others—and the assumption often made is that more complex strategies will outperform simpler strategies. In the present study, we tested the relationship between the complexity and accuracy of 11 strategies. Data were crime site and home locations of 16 UK residential burglars who had committed 10 or more crimes each. The results indicated that strategy complexity was not positively related to accuracy. This was also found to be the case across tasks that ranged in complexity (where complexity was determined by the number of crimes used to make a prediction). Implications for police policies and procedures, as well as our understanding of human decision-making, are discussed.

AB - Geographic profilers have access to a repertoire of strategies for predicting a serial offenders home location. These strategies range in complexity—some involve more calculations to implement than others—and the assumption often made is that more complex strategies will outperform simpler strategies. In the present study, we tested the relationship between the complexity and accuracy of 11 strategies. Data were crime site and home locations of 16 UK residential burglars who had committed 10 or more crimes each. The results indicated that strategy complexity was not positively related to accuracy. This was also found to be the case across tasks that ranged in complexity (where complexity was determined by the number of crimes used to make a prediction). Implications for police policies and procedures, as well as our understanding of human decision-making, are discussed.

KW - geographic profiling

KW - complexity

KW - accuracy

KW - serial burglary

KW - CrimeStat

KW - decision-making

U2 - 10.1007/s10940-004-1785-4

DO - 10.1007/s10940-004-1785-4

M3 - Journal article

VL - 21

SP - 1

EP - 26

JO - Journal of Quantitative Criminology

JF - Journal of Quantitative Criminology

SN - 0748-4518

IS - 1

ER -