Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - On-Line Inference for Hidden Markov Models via Particle Filters.
AU - Fearnhead, Paul;
AU - Clifford, Peter
PY - 2003/11
Y1 - 2003/11
N2 - We consider the on-line Bayesian analysis of data by using a hidden Markov model, where inference is tractable conditional on the history of the state of the hidden component. A new particle filter algorithm is introduced and shown to produce promising results when analysing data of this type. The algorithm is similar to the mixture Kalman filter but uses a different resampling algorithm. We prove that this resampling algorithm is computationally efficient and optimal, among unbiased resampling algorithms, in terms of minimizing a squared error loss function. In a practical example, that of estimating break points from well-log data, our new particle filter outperforms two other particle filters, one of which is the mixture Kalman filter, by between one and two orders of magnitude.
AB - We consider the on-line Bayesian analysis of data by using a hidden Markov model, where inference is tractable conditional on the history of the state of the hidden component. A new particle filter algorithm is introduced and shown to produce promising results when analysing data of this type. The algorithm is similar to the mixture Kalman filter but uses a different resampling algorithm. We prove that this resampling algorithm is computationally efficient and optimal, among unbiased resampling algorithms, in terms of minimizing a squared error loss function. In a practical example, that of estimating break points from well-log data, our new particle filter outperforms two other particle filters, one of which is the mixture Kalman filter, by between one and two orders of magnitude.
U2 - 10.1111/1467-9868.00421
DO - 10.1111/1467-9868.00421
M3 - Journal article
VL - 65
SP - 887
EP - 899
JO - Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology)
JF - Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology)
SN - 1369-7412
IS - 4
ER -