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Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Ozone pollution will compromise efforts to increase global wheat production
AU - Mills, Gina
AU - Sharps, Katrina
AU - Simpson, David
AU - Pleijel, Håkan
AU - Broberg, Malin
AU - Uddling, Johan
AU - Jaramillo, Fernando
AU - Davies, William John
AU - Dentener, Frank J.
AU - Van den Berg, Maurits
AU - Agrawal, Madhoolika
AU - Agrawal, Shahibhushan B.
AU - Ainsworth, Elizabeth A.
AU - Büker, Patrick
AU - Emberson, Lisa
AU - Feng, Zhaozhong
AU - Harmens, Harry
AU - Hayes, Felicity
AU - Kobayashi, Kazuhiko
AU - Paoletti, Elena
AU - Van Dingenen, Rita
PY - 2018/8
Y1 - 2018/8
N2 - Introduction of high-performing crop cultivars and crop/soil water management practices that increase the stomatal uptake of carbon dioxide and photosynthesis will be instrumental in realizing the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) of achieving food security. To date, however, global assessments of how to increase crop yield have failed to consider the negative effects of tropospheric ozone, a gaseous pollutant that enters the leaf stomatal pores of plants along with carbon dioxide, and is increasing in concentration globally, particularly in rapidly developing countries. Earlier studies have simply estimated that the largest effects are in the areas with the highest ozone concentrations. Using a modelling method that accounts for the effects of soil moisture deficit and meteorological factors on the stomatal uptake of ozone, we show for the first time that ozone impacts on wheat yield are particularly large in humid rain-fed and irrigated areas of major wheat-producing countries (e.g. United States, France, India, China and Russia). Averaged over 2010–2012, we estimate that ozone reduces wheat yields by a mean 9.9% in the northern hemisphere and 6.2% in the southern hemisphere, corresponding to some 85 Tg (million tonnes) of lost grain. Total production losses in developing countries receiving Official Development Assistance are 50% higher than those in developed countries, potentially reducing the possibility of achieving UN SDG2.Crucially, our analysis shows that ozone could reduce the potential yield benefits of increasing irrigation usage in response to climate change because added irrigation increases the uptake and subsequent negative effects of the pollutant. We show that mitigation of air pollution in a changing climate could play a vital role in achievingthe above-mentioned UN SDG, while also contributing to other SDGs related to human health and well-being, ecosystems and climate change.
AB - Introduction of high-performing crop cultivars and crop/soil water management practices that increase the stomatal uptake of carbon dioxide and photosynthesis will be instrumental in realizing the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) of achieving food security. To date, however, global assessments of how to increase crop yield have failed to consider the negative effects of tropospheric ozone, a gaseous pollutant that enters the leaf stomatal pores of plants along with carbon dioxide, and is increasing in concentration globally, particularly in rapidly developing countries. Earlier studies have simply estimated that the largest effects are in the areas with the highest ozone concentrations. Using a modelling method that accounts for the effects of soil moisture deficit and meteorological factors on the stomatal uptake of ozone, we show for the first time that ozone impacts on wheat yield are particularly large in humid rain-fed and irrigated areas of major wheat-producing countries (e.g. United States, France, India, China and Russia). Averaged over 2010–2012, we estimate that ozone reduces wheat yields by a mean 9.9% in the northern hemisphere and 6.2% in the southern hemisphere, corresponding to some 85 Tg (million tonnes) of lost grain. Total production losses in developing countries receiving Official Development Assistance are 50% higher than those in developed countries, potentially reducing the possibility of achieving UN SDG2.Crucially, our analysis shows that ozone could reduce the potential yield benefits of increasing irrigation usage in response to climate change because added irrigation increases the uptake and subsequent negative effects of the pollutant. We show that mitigation of air pollution in a changing climate could play a vital role in achievingthe above-mentioned UN SDG, while also contributing to other SDGs related to human health and well-being, ecosystems and climate change.
KW - climate change
KW - developed countries
KW - developing countries
KW - food security
KW - irrigation
KW - ozone
KW - stomatal uptake
KW - wheat
KW - yield
U2 - 10.1111/gcb.14157
DO - 10.1111/gcb.14157
M3 - Journal article
VL - 24
SP - 3560
EP - 3574
JO - Global Change Biology
JF - Global Change Biology
SN - 1354-1013
IS - 8
ER -