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  • KRSW-Technometrics

    Rights statement: This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Technometrics on 19/04/2018, available online: http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/00401706.2018.1462738

    Accepted author manuscript, 1.21 MB, PDF document

    Available under license: CC BY-NC: Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License

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Peaks over thresholds modelling with multivariate generalized Pareto distributions

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<mark>Journal publication date</mark>2/01/2019
<mark>Journal</mark>Technometrics
Issue number1
Volume61
Number of pages13
Pages (from-to)123-135
Publication StatusPublished
Early online date19/04/18
<mark>Original language</mark>English

Abstract

When assessing the impact of extreme events, it is often not just a single component, but the combined behaviour of several components which is important. Statistical modelling using multivariate generalized Pareto (GP) distributions constitutes the multivariate analogue of univariate peaks over thresholds modelling, which is widely used in finance and engineering. We develop general methods for construction of multivariate GP distributions and use them to create a variety of new statistical models. A censored likelihood procedure is proposed to make inference on these models, together with a threshold selection procedure, goodness-of-fit diagnostics, and a computationally tractable strategy for model selection. The models are fitted to returns of stock prices of four UK-based banks and to rainfall data in the context of landslide risk estimation. Supplementary materials and codes are available online.

Bibliographic note

This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Technometrics on 19/04/2018, available online: http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/00401706.2018.1462738