TY - JOUR

T1 - Periodicity, synchronization and persistence in pre-vaccination measles

AU - Marguta, Ramona

AU - Parisi, Andrea

N1 - © 2016 The Author(s).

PY - 2016/6/8

Y1 - 2016/6/8

N2 - We investigate the relationship between periodicity, synchronization and persistence of measles through simulations of geographical spread on the British Isles. We show that the establishment of areas of biennial periodicity depends on the interplay between human mobility and local population size and that locations undergoing biennial cycles tend to be, on average, synchronized in phase. We show however that occurrences of opposition of phase are actually quite common and correspond to stable dynamics. We also show that persistence is strictly related to circulation of the disease in the highly populated area of London and that this ensures survival of the disease even when human mobility drops to extremely low levels.

AB - We investigate the relationship between periodicity, synchronization and persistence of measles through simulations of geographical spread on the British Isles. We show that the establishment of areas of biennial periodicity depends on the interplay between human mobility and local population size and that locations undergoing biennial cycles tend to be, on average, synchronized in phase. We show however that occurrences of opposition of phase are actually quite common and correspond to stable dynamics. We also show that persistence is strictly related to circulation of the disease in the highly populated area of London and that this ensures survival of the disease even when human mobility drops to extremely low levels.

KW - Humans

KW - Measles

KW - Models, Biological

KW - United Kingdom

KW - Vaccination

KW - Journal Article

KW - Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

U2 - 10.1098/rsif.2016.0258

DO - 10.1098/rsif.2016.0258

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 27278363

VL - 13

JO - Interface

JF - Interface

SN - 1742-5689

IS - 119

M1 - 20160258

ER -