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Pre-industrial to end 21st century projections of tropospheric ozone from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)

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Pre-industrial to end 21st century projections of tropospheric ozone from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). / Young, Paul; Archibald, A. T.; Bowman, Howard; Lamarque, J. F.; Naik, Vaishali; Stevenson, D. S.; Tilmes, Simone; Voulgarakis, A.; Wild, Oliver; Bergmann, D.; Cameron-Smith, Philip; Cionni, I; Collins, William J.; Dalsoren, Stig B; Doherty, R. M.; Eyring, V.; Faluvegi, G.; Horowitz, L. W.; Josse, B ; Lee, Yunha H; MacKenzie, Ian A.; Nagashima, T; Plummer, David A; Righi, M; Rumbold, S; Skeie, R; Shindell, Drew T.; Strode, Sarah; Sudo, K.; Szopa, Sophie; Zeng, Guang.

In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics , Vol. 13, No. 4, 21.02.2013, p. 2063-2090.

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articlepeer-review

Harvard

Young, P, Archibald, AT, Bowman, H, Lamarque, JF, Naik, V, Stevenson, DS, Tilmes, S, Voulgarakis, A, Wild, O, Bergmann, D, Cameron-Smith, P, Cionni, I, Collins, WJ, Dalsoren, SB, Doherty, RM, Eyring, V, Faluvegi, G, Horowitz, LW, Josse, B, Lee, YH, MacKenzie, IA, Nagashima, T, Plummer, DA, Righi, M, Rumbold, S, Skeie, R, Shindell, DT, Strode, S, Sudo, K, Szopa, S & Zeng, G 2013, 'Pre-industrial to end 21st century projections of tropospheric ozone from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)', Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics , vol. 13, no. 4, pp. 2063-2090. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2063-2013

APA

Young, P., Archibald, A. T., Bowman, H., Lamarque, J. F., Naik, V., Stevenson, D. S., Tilmes, S., Voulgarakis, A., Wild, O., Bergmann, D., Cameron-Smith, P., Cionni, I., Collins, W. J., Dalsoren, S. B., Doherty, R. M., Eyring, V., Faluvegi, G., Horowitz, L. W., Josse, B., ... Zeng, G. (2013). Pre-industrial to end 21st century projections of tropospheric ozone from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics , 13(4), 2063-2090. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2063-2013

Vancouver

Young P, Archibald AT, Bowman H, Lamarque JF, Naik V, Stevenson DS et al. Pre-industrial to end 21st century projections of tropospheric ozone from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics . 2013 Feb 21;13(4):2063-2090. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2063-2013

Author

Young, Paul ; Archibald, A. T. ; Bowman, Howard ; Lamarque, J. F. ; Naik, Vaishali ; Stevenson, D. S. ; Tilmes, Simone ; Voulgarakis, A. ; Wild, Oliver ; Bergmann, D. ; Cameron-Smith, Philip ; Cionni, I ; Collins, William J. ; Dalsoren, Stig B ; Doherty, R. M. ; Eyring, V. ; Faluvegi, G. ; Horowitz, L. W. ; Josse, B ; Lee, Yunha H ; MacKenzie, Ian A. ; Nagashima, T ; Plummer, David A ; Righi, M ; Rumbold, S ; Skeie, R ; Shindell, Drew T. ; Strode, Sarah ; Sudo, K. ; Szopa, Sophie ; Zeng, Guang. / Pre-industrial to end 21st century projections of tropospheric ozone from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics . 2013 ; Vol. 13, No. 4. pp. 2063-2090.

Bibtex

@article{86fc82d86c3b48e18cf21abb777048ad,
title = "Pre-industrial to end 21st century projections of tropospheric ozone from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)",
abstract = "Present day tropospheric ozone and its changes between 1850 and 2100 are considered, analysing 15 global models that participated in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). The ensemble mean compares well against present day observations. The seasonal cycle correlates well, except for some locations in the tropical upper troposphere. Most (75 %) of the models are encompassed with a range of global mean tropospheric ozone column estimates from satellite data, but there is a suggestion of a high bias in the Northern Hemisphere and a low bias in the Southern Hemisphere, which could indicate deficiencies with the ozone precursor emissions. Compared to the present day ensemble mean tropospheric ozone burden of 337 ± 23 Tg, the ensemble mean burden for 1850 time slice is ∼30 % lower. Future changes were modelled using emissions and climate projections from four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Compared to 2000, the relative changes in the ensemble mean tropospheric ozone burden in 2030 (2100) for the different RCPs are: −4 % (−16 %) for RCP2.6, 2 % (−7 %) for RCP4.5, 1 % (−9 %) for RCP6.0, and 7 % (18 %) for RCP8.5. Model agreement on the magnitude of the change is greatest for larger changes. Reductions in most precursor emissions are common across the RCPs and drive ozone decreases in all but RCP8.5, where doubled methane and a 40–150 % greater stratospheric influx (estimated from a subset of models) increase ozone. While models with a high ozone burden for the present day also have high ozone burdens for the other time slices, no model consistently predicts large or small ozone changes; i.e. the magnitudes of the burdens and burden changes do not appear to be related simply, and the models are sensitive to emissions and climate changes in different ways. Spatial patterns of ozone changes are well correlated across most models, but are notably different for models without time evolving stratospheric ozone concentrations. A unified approach to ozone budget specifications and a rigorous investigation of the factors that drive tropospheric ozone is recommended to help future studies attribute ozone changes and inter-model differences more clearly.",
author = "Paul Young and Archibald, {A. T.} and Howard Bowman and Lamarque, {J. F.} and Vaishali Naik and Stevenson, {D. S.} and Simone Tilmes and A. Voulgarakis and Oliver Wild and D. Bergmann and Philip Cameron-Smith and I Cionni and Collins, {William J.} and Dalsoren, {Stig B} and Doherty, {R. M.} and V. Eyring and G. Faluvegi and Horowitz, {L. W.} and B Josse and Lee, {Yunha H} and MacKenzie, {Ian A.} and T Nagashima and Plummer, {David A} and M Righi and S Rumbold and R Skeie and Shindell, {Drew T.} and Sarah Strode and K. Sudo and Sophie Szopa and Guang Zeng",
note = "{\textcopyright} Author(s) 2013. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.",
year = "2013",
month = feb,
day = "21",
doi = "10.5194/acp-13-2063-2013",
language = "English",
volume = "13",
pages = "2063--2090",
journal = "Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ",
issn = "1680-7316",
publisher = "Copernicus GmbH (Copernicus Publications) on behalf of the European Geosciences Union (EGU)",
number = "4",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Pre-industrial to end 21st century projections of tropospheric ozone from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)

AU - Young, Paul

AU - Archibald, A. T.

AU - Bowman, Howard

AU - Lamarque, J. F.

AU - Naik, Vaishali

AU - Stevenson, D. S.

AU - Tilmes, Simone

AU - Voulgarakis, A.

AU - Wild, Oliver

AU - Bergmann, D.

AU - Cameron-Smith, Philip

AU - Cionni, I

AU - Collins, William J.

AU - Dalsoren, Stig B

AU - Doherty, R. M.

AU - Eyring, V.

AU - Faluvegi, G.

AU - Horowitz, L. W.

AU - Josse, B

AU - Lee, Yunha H

AU - MacKenzie, Ian A.

AU - Nagashima, T

AU - Plummer, David A

AU - Righi, M

AU - Rumbold, S

AU - Skeie, R

AU - Shindell, Drew T.

AU - Strode, Sarah

AU - Sudo, K.

AU - Szopa, Sophie

AU - Zeng, Guang

N1 - © Author(s) 2013. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

PY - 2013/2/21

Y1 - 2013/2/21

N2 - Present day tropospheric ozone and its changes between 1850 and 2100 are considered, analysing 15 global models that participated in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). The ensemble mean compares well against present day observations. The seasonal cycle correlates well, except for some locations in the tropical upper troposphere. Most (75 %) of the models are encompassed with a range of global mean tropospheric ozone column estimates from satellite data, but there is a suggestion of a high bias in the Northern Hemisphere and a low bias in the Southern Hemisphere, which could indicate deficiencies with the ozone precursor emissions. Compared to the present day ensemble mean tropospheric ozone burden of 337 ± 23 Tg, the ensemble mean burden for 1850 time slice is ∼30 % lower. Future changes were modelled using emissions and climate projections from four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Compared to 2000, the relative changes in the ensemble mean tropospheric ozone burden in 2030 (2100) for the different RCPs are: −4 % (−16 %) for RCP2.6, 2 % (−7 %) for RCP4.5, 1 % (−9 %) for RCP6.0, and 7 % (18 %) for RCP8.5. Model agreement on the magnitude of the change is greatest for larger changes. Reductions in most precursor emissions are common across the RCPs and drive ozone decreases in all but RCP8.5, where doubled methane and a 40–150 % greater stratospheric influx (estimated from a subset of models) increase ozone. While models with a high ozone burden for the present day also have high ozone burdens for the other time slices, no model consistently predicts large or small ozone changes; i.e. the magnitudes of the burdens and burden changes do not appear to be related simply, and the models are sensitive to emissions and climate changes in different ways. Spatial patterns of ozone changes are well correlated across most models, but are notably different for models without time evolving stratospheric ozone concentrations. A unified approach to ozone budget specifications and a rigorous investigation of the factors that drive tropospheric ozone is recommended to help future studies attribute ozone changes and inter-model differences more clearly.

AB - Present day tropospheric ozone and its changes between 1850 and 2100 are considered, analysing 15 global models that participated in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). The ensemble mean compares well against present day observations. The seasonal cycle correlates well, except for some locations in the tropical upper troposphere. Most (75 %) of the models are encompassed with a range of global mean tropospheric ozone column estimates from satellite data, but there is a suggestion of a high bias in the Northern Hemisphere and a low bias in the Southern Hemisphere, which could indicate deficiencies with the ozone precursor emissions. Compared to the present day ensemble mean tropospheric ozone burden of 337 ± 23 Tg, the ensemble mean burden for 1850 time slice is ∼30 % lower. Future changes were modelled using emissions and climate projections from four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Compared to 2000, the relative changes in the ensemble mean tropospheric ozone burden in 2030 (2100) for the different RCPs are: −4 % (−16 %) for RCP2.6, 2 % (−7 %) for RCP4.5, 1 % (−9 %) for RCP6.0, and 7 % (18 %) for RCP8.5. Model agreement on the magnitude of the change is greatest for larger changes. Reductions in most precursor emissions are common across the RCPs and drive ozone decreases in all but RCP8.5, where doubled methane and a 40–150 % greater stratospheric influx (estimated from a subset of models) increase ozone. While models with a high ozone burden for the present day also have high ozone burdens for the other time slices, no model consistently predicts large or small ozone changes; i.e. the magnitudes of the burdens and burden changes do not appear to be related simply, and the models are sensitive to emissions and climate changes in different ways. Spatial patterns of ozone changes are well correlated across most models, but are notably different for models without time evolving stratospheric ozone concentrations. A unified approach to ozone budget specifications and a rigorous investigation of the factors that drive tropospheric ozone is recommended to help future studies attribute ozone changes and inter-model differences more clearly.

U2 - 10.5194/acp-13-2063-2013

DO - 10.5194/acp-13-2063-2013

M3 - Journal article

VL - 13

SP - 2063

EP - 2090

JO - Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics

JF - Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics

SN - 1680-7316

IS - 4

ER -