Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Prophecy, reality and uncertainty in distributed hydrological modelling.
AU - Beven, Keith J.
PY - 1993
Y1 - 1993
N2 - Difficulties in defining truly mechanistic model structures and difficulties of model calibration and validation suggest that the application of distributed hydrological models is more an exercise in prophecy than prediction. One response to these problems is outlined in terms of a realistic assessment of uncertainty in hydrological prophecy, together with a framework (GLUE) within which such ideas can be implemented. It is suggested that a post-modernistic hydrology will recognise the uncertainties inherent in hydrological modelling and will focus attention on the value of data in conditioning hydrological prophecies.
AB - Difficulties in defining truly mechanistic model structures and difficulties of model calibration and validation suggest that the application of distributed hydrological models is more an exercise in prophecy than prediction. One response to these problems is outlined in terms of a realistic assessment of uncertainty in hydrological prophecy, together with a framework (GLUE) within which such ideas can be implemented. It is suggested that a post-modernistic hydrology will recognise the uncertainties inherent in hydrological modelling and will focus attention on the value of data in conditioning hydrological prophecies.
KW - Distributed hydrological models
KW - calibration
KW - validation
KW - uncertainty estimation
KW - value of data
KW - Monte Carlo methods
U2 - 10.1016/0309-1708(93)90028-E
DO - 10.1016/0309-1708(93)90028-E
M3 - Journal article
VL - 16
SP - 41
EP - 51
JO - Advances in Water Resources
JF - Advances in Water Resources
IS - 1
ER -