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  • Pseudo-marginal Metropolis-Hastings sampling using averages of unbiased estimators

    Rights statement: This is a pre-copy-editing, author-produced PDF of an article accepted for publication in Biometrika following peer review. The definitive publisher-authenticated version Chris Sherlock, Alexandre H. Thiery, Anthony Lee; Pseudo-marginal Metropolis–Hastings sampling using averages of unbiased estimators, Biometrika, Volume 104, Issue 3, 1 September 2017, Pages 727–734, https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/asx031

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Pseudo-marginal Metropolis-Hastings sampling using averages of unbiased estimators

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Published
<mark>Journal publication date</mark>09/2017
<mark>Journal</mark>Biometrika
Issue number3
Volume104
Number of pages8
Pages (from-to)727-734
Publication StatusPublished
Early online date21/06/17
<mark>Original language</mark>English

Abstract

We consider a pseudo-marginal Metropolis--Hastings kernel Pm that is constructed using an average of m exchangeable random variables, and an analogous kernel P_s that averages s<m of these same random variables. Using an embedding technique to facilitate comparisons, we provide a lower bound for the asymptotic variance of any ergodic average associated with Pm in terms of the asymptotic variance of the corresponding ergodic average associated with P_s. We show that the bound is tight and disprove a conjecture that when the random variables to be averaged are independent, the asymptotic variance under P_m is never less than s/m times the variance under P_s. The conjecture does, however, hold when considering continuous-time Markov chains. These results imply that if the computational cost of the algorithm is proportional to m, it is often better to set m=1. We provide intuition as to why these findings differ so markedly from recent results for pseudo-marginal kernels employing particle filter approximations. Our results are exemplified through two simulation studies; in the first the computational cost is effectively proportional to m and in the second there is a considerable start-up cost at each iteration.

Bibliographic note

This is a pre-copy-editing, author-produced PDF of an article accepted for publication in Biometrika following peer review. The definitive publisher-authenticated version Chris Sherlock, Alexandre H. Thiery, Anthony Lee; Pseudo-marginal Metropolis–Hastings sampling using averages of unbiased estimators, Biometrika, Volume 104, Issue 3, 1 September 2017, Pages 727–734, https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/asx031