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Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Real Exchange Rates and Time-Varying Trade Costs
AU - Pavlidis, Efthymios
AU - Paya, Ivan
AU - Peel, David
PY - 2011
Y1 - 2011
N2 - This paper re-examines the empirical modeling of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) deviations in the presence of commodity market frictions. First, we show that a specific type of smooth transition models can closely approximate the functional form of the theoretical adjustment mechanism derived by Dumas (1992) [Dynamic Equilibrium and the Real Exchange Rate in a Spatially Separated World, Review of Financial Studies,5:2153–180] for the case of constant as well as changing trade costs. Second, we develop, for the first time, an empirical model of the real exchange rate which allows for changes in the degree of market integration. By employing a long span of data on the Dollar-Sterling real exchange rate and a micro-founded proxy for trade frictions, we provide novel evidence of a significant relationship between the persistence of the real exchange rate and the level of trade costs. This finding suggests that both the difficulty of detecting PPP and the extend of Rogoff’s puzzle vary over time with the degree of trade restrictiveness. Finally, we highlight policy repercussions of our results.
AB - This paper re-examines the empirical modeling of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) deviations in the presence of commodity market frictions. First, we show that a specific type of smooth transition models can closely approximate the functional form of the theoretical adjustment mechanism derived by Dumas (1992) [Dynamic Equilibrium and the Real Exchange Rate in a Spatially Separated World, Review of Financial Studies,5:2153–180] for the case of constant as well as changing trade costs. Second, we develop, for the first time, an empirical model of the real exchange rate which allows for changes in the degree of market integration. By employing a long span of data on the Dollar-Sterling real exchange rate and a micro-founded proxy for trade frictions, we provide novel evidence of a significant relationship between the persistence of the real exchange rate and the level of trade costs. This finding suggests that both the difficulty of detecting PPP and the extend of Rogoff’s puzzle vary over time with the degree of trade restrictiveness. Finally, we highlight policy repercussions of our results.
U2 - 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2011.06.004
DO - 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2011.06.004
M3 - Journal article
VL - 30
SP - 1157
EP - 1179
JO - Journal of International Money and Finance
JF - Journal of International Money and Finance
SN - 0261-5606
IS - 6
ER -