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Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Scale appropriate modelling of diffuse microbial pollution from agriculture.
AU - Oliver, David M.
AU - Heathwaite, A. Louise
AU - Fish, Rob D.
AU - Chadwick, David R.
AU - Hodgson, Chris J.
AU - Winter, Michael
AU - Butler, Allan
N1 - The final, definitive version of this article has been published in the Journal, Progress in Physical Geography, 33 (3), 2009, © SAGE Publications Ltd, 2009 by SAGE Publications Ltd at the Progress in Physical Geography page: http://ppg.sagepub.com/ on SAGE Journals Online: http://online.sagepub.com/
PY - 2009/6/1
Y1 - 2009/6/1
N2 - The prediction of microbial concentrations and loads in receiving waters is a key requirement for informing policy decisions in order to safeguard human health. However, modelling the fate and transfer dynamics of faecally-derived microorganisms at different spatial scales poses a considerable challenge to the research and policy community. The objective of this paper is to critically evaluate the complexities and associated uncertainties attributed to the development of models for assessing agriculturally derived microbial pollution of watercourses. A series of key issues with respect to scale appropriate modelling of diffuse microbial pollution from agriculture are presented and include: (i) appreciating inadequacies in baseline sampling to underpin model development; (ii) uncertainty in the magnitudes of microbial pollutants attributed to different faecal sources; (iii) continued development of the empirical evidence base in line with other agricultural pollutants; (iv) acknowledging the added-value of interdisciplinary working; and (v) beginning to account for economics in model development. It is argued that uncertainty in model predictions produces a space for meaningful scrutiny of the nature of evidence and assumptions underpinning model applications around which pathways towards more effective model development may ultimately emerge.
AB - The prediction of microbial concentrations and loads in receiving waters is a key requirement for informing policy decisions in order to safeguard human health. However, modelling the fate and transfer dynamics of faecally-derived microorganisms at different spatial scales poses a considerable challenge to the research and policy community. The objective of this paper is to critically evaluate the complexities and associated uncertainties attributed to the development of models for assessing agriculturally derived microbial pollution of watercourses. A series of key issues with respect to scale appropriate modelling of diffuse microbial pollution from agriculture are presented and include: (i) appreciating inadequacies in baseline sampling to underpin model development; (ii) uncertainty in the magnitudes of microbial pollutants attributed to different faecal sources; (iii) continued development of the empirical evidence base in line with other agricultural pollutants; (iv) acknowledging the added-value of interdisciplinary working; and (v) beginning to account for economics in model development. It is argued that uncertainty in model predictions produces a space for meaningful scrutiny of the nature of evidence and assumptions underpinning model applications around which pathways towards more effective model development may ultimately emerge.
KW - diffuse pollution
KW - end-user
KW - faecal indicator organism
KW - modelling
KW - pathogen
KW - scale
KW - stakeholder
KW - uncertainty
U2 - 10.1177/0309133309342647
DO - 10.1177/0309133309342647
M3 - Journal article
VL - 33
SP - 358
EP - 377
JO - Progress in Physical Geography
JF - Progress in Physical Geography
SN - 1477-0296
IS - 3
ER -