Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Simplicity out of complexity in environmental modelling: Occam's razor revisited.
AU - Young, Peter C.
AU - Parkinson, Stuart
AU - Lees, Matthew
PY - 1996
Y1 - 1996
N2 - While large models based on a deterministic-reductionist philosophy have an important part to play in environmental research, it is advantageous to consider alternative modelling methodologies which overtly acknowledge the poorly defined and uncertain nature of most environmental systems. The paper discusses this topic and presents an integrated statistical modelling procedure which involves three main methodological tools: uncertainty and sensitivity studies based on Monte Carlo simulation techniques; dominant mode analysis using a new method of combined linearization and model-order reduction; and data-based mechanistic modelling. This novel approach is illustrated by two practical examples: modelling the global carbon cycle in relation to possible climate change; and modelling a horticultural glasshouse for the purposes of automatic climate control system design.
AB - While large models based on a deterministic-reductionist philosophy have an important part to play in environmental research, it is advantageous to consider alternative modelling methodologies which overtly acknowledge the poorly defined and uncertain nature of most environmental systems. The paper discusses this topic and presents an integrated statistical modelling procedure which involves three main methodological tools: uncertainty and sensitivity studies based on Monte Carlo simulation techniques; dominant mode analysis using a new method of combined linearization and model-order reduction; and data-based mechanistic modelling. This novel approach is illustrated by two practical examples: modelling the global carbon cycle in relation to possible climate change; and modelling a horticultural glasshouse for the purposes of automatic climate control system design.
U2 - 10.1080/02664769624206
DO - 10.1080/02664769624206
M3 - Journal article
VL - 23
SP - 165
EP - 210
JO - Journal of Applied Statistics
JF - Journal of Applied Statistics
SN - 1360-0532
IS - 2-3
ER -