Stochasticity generates an evolutionary instability for infectious disease

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Stochasticity generates an evolutionary instability for infectious disease. / Read, Jonathan M.; Keeling, Matt J.
In: Ecology Letters, Vol. 10, No. 9, 09.2007, p. 818-827.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

Harvard

Read, JM & Keeling, MJ 2007, 'Stochasticity generates an evolutionary instability for infectious disease', Ecology Letters, vol. 10, no. 9, pp. 818-827. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2007.01078.x

APA

Read, J. M., & Keeling, M. J. (2007). Stochasticity generates an evolutionary instability for infectious disease. Ecology Letters, 10(9), 818-827. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2007.01078.x

Vancouver

Read JM, Keeling MJ. Stochasticity generates an evolutionary instability for infectious disease. Ecology Letters. 2007 Sept;10(9):818-827. Epub 2007 Jun 29. doi: 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2007.01078.x

Author

Read, Jonathan M. ; Keeling, Matt J. / Stochasticity generates an evolutionary instability for infectious disease. In: Ecology Letters. 2007 ; Vol. 10, No. 9. pp. 818-827.

Bibtex

@article{ceb01646c2f243a089bfc7064638d0d2,

title = "Stochasticity generates an evolutionary instability for infectious disease",

abstract = "Traditional models of disease evolution are based upon the deterministic competition between strains that confer complete cross-immunity, and predict the selection of strains with higher basic reproductive ratios (R-0). In contrast, evolution in a stochastic setting is determined by a complex mixture of influences. Here, to isolate the impact of stochasticity, we constrain all competing strains to have an equal basic reproductive ratio - thereby eliminating deterministic selection. The resulting stochastic models predict an evolutionary unstable strategy, which separates a region favouring the evolution of rapid-transmission (acute) strains from one favouring persistent (chronic) strains. We find this to be a generic phenomenon with strain evolution consistently driven towards extremes of epidemiological behaviour. Even in the absence of an equal R-0 constraint, such stochastic selective pressures operate in addition to standard deterministic selection and will therefore influence the evolutionary behaviour of disease in an scenarios.",

keywords = "R-0, infectious period, mutation, selection, SIR equation, trade-off, transmission, PARASITE VIRULENCE, PATHOGEN VIRULENCE, COMMUNITY SIZE, TRADE-OFFS, POPULATIONS, DYNAMICS, DETERMINANTS, EMERGENCE, EPIDEMIC, MEASLES",

author = "Read, {Jonathan M.} and Keeling, {Matt J.}",

year = "2007",

month = sep,

doi = "10.1111/j.1461-0248.2007.01078.x",

language = "English",

volume = "10",

pages = "818--827",

journal = "Ecology Letters",

issn = "1461-023X",

publisher = "Wiley",

number = "9",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Stochasticity generates an evolutionary instability for infectious disease

AU - Read, Jonathan M.

AU - Keeling, Matt J.

PY - 2007/9

Y1 - 2007/9

N2 - Traditional models of disease evolution are based upon the deterministic competition between strains that confer complete cross-immunity, and predict the selection of strains with higher basic reproductive ratios (R-0). In contrast, evolution in a stochastic setting is determined by a complex mixture of influences. Here, to isolate the impact of stochasticity, we constrain all competing strains to have an equal basic reproductive ratio - thereby eliminating deterministic selection. The resulting stochastic models predict an evolutionary unstable strategy, which separates a region favouring the evolution of rapid-transmission (acute) strains from one favouring persistent (chronic) strains. We find this to be a generic phenomenon with strain evolution consistently driven towards extremes of epidemiological behaviour. Even in the absence of an equal R-0 constraint, such stochastic selective pressures operate in addition to standard deterministic selection and will therefore influence the evolutionary behaviour of disease in an scenarios.

AB - Traditional models of disease evolution are based upon the deterministic competition between strains that confer complete cross-immunity, and predict the selection of strains with higher basic reproductive ratios (R-0). In contrast, evolution in a stochastic setting is determined by a complex mixture of influences. Here, to isolate the impact of stochasticity, we constrain all competing strains to have an equal basic reproductive ratio - thereby eliminating deterministic selection. The resulting stochastic models predict an evolutionary unstable strategy, which separates a region favouring the evolution of rapid-transmission (acute) strains from one favouring persistent (chronic) strains. We find this to be a generic phenomenon with strain evolution consistently driven towards extremes of epidemiological behaviour. Even in the absence of an equal R-0 constraint, such stochastic selective pressures operate in addition to standard deterministic selection and will therefore influence the evolutionary behaviour of disease in an scenarios.

KW - R-0

KW - infectious period

KW - mutation

KW - selection

KW - SIR equation

KW - trade-off

KW - transmission

KW - PARASITE VIRULENCE

KW - PATHOGEN VIRULENCE

KW - COMMUNITY SIZE

KW - TRADE-OFFS

KW - POPULATIONS

KW - DYNAMICS

KW - DETERMINANTS

KW - EMERGENCE

KW - EPIDEMIC

KW - MEASLES

U2 - 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2007.01078.x

DO - 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2007.01078.x

M3 - Journal article

VL - 10

SP - 818

EP - 827

JO - Ecology Letters

JF - Ecology Letters

SN - 1461-023X

IS - 9

ER -

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