Study of thermodynamic indices in forecasting pre-monsoon thunderstorms over Kolkata during STORM pilot phase 2006-2008

Lancaster Environment Centre

Text available via DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-010-9582-x
Final published version

Keywords

Thermodynamic indices, Thunderstorms, Skill scores

View graph of relations

Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

Published

Standard

Study of thermodynamic indices in forecasting pre-monsoon thunderstorms over Kolkata during STORM pilot phase 2006-2008. / Tyagi, Bhishma; Vissa, Naresh Krishna; Satyanarayana, A. N. V.
In: Natural Hazards, Vol. 56, No. 3, 03.2011, p. 681-698.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

Bibtex

@article{d62871fcaf9c46a0ad1dfffbf6aaf05a,

title = "Study of thermodynamic indices in forecasting pre-monsoon thunderstorms over Kolkata during STORM pilot phase 2006-2008",

abstract = "The pre-monsoon convective atmosphere over Kolkata (22.52°N, 88.37°E) during STORM field phase 2006–2008 is investigated using 12 UTC radiosonde data and thermodynamic indices. In the present study, an attempt has been made to assess the skill of various indices and parameters and to propose suitable threshold values in forecasting the occurrence of thunderstorm activity at Kolkata. The thermodynamic indices and parameters used in the present study are lifted index (LI), K index (KI), severe weather threat index (SWEAT), total totals index (TTI), convective available potential energy (CAPE), deep convection index (DCI), humidity index (HI), Boyden index (BI), dew point temperature at 850 hpa (DEW), relative humidity at 700 hpa (RH), and bulk Richardson number (BRN). Validation of the suggested threshold values of indices was conducted on the days of thunderstorm activity. It was found that one index alone cannot predict the occurrence of thunderstorm over Kolkata region. The present study suggests that the indices with highest skill for thunderstorm prediction are KI, DCI, SWEAT, DEW, HI, RH, LI, TTI, while the prediction efficiency is poor for CAPE, BRN, and BI. Observed values of these indices also reveal that scattered, multi-cellular thunderstorms are possible over Kolkata during pre-monsoon months.",

keywords = "Thermodynamic indices, Thunderstorms, Skill scores",

author = "Bhishma Tyagi and Vissa, {Naresh Krishna} and Satyanarayana, {A. N. V.}",

year = "2011",

month = mar,

doi = "10.1007/s11069-010-9582-x",

language = "English",

volume = "56",

pages = "681--698",

journal = "Natural Hazards",

issn = "0921-030X",

publisher = "Springer Netherlands",

number = "3",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Study of thermodynamic indices in forecasting pre-monsoon thunderstorms over Kolkata during STORM pilot phase 2006-2008

AU - Tyagi, Bhishma

AU - Vissa, Naresh Krishna

AU - Satyanarayana, A. N. V.

PY - 2011/3

Y1 - 2011/3

N2 - The pre-monsoon convective atmosphere over Kolkata (22.52°N, 88.37°E) during STORM field phase 2006–2008 is investigated using 12 UTC radiosonde data and thermodynamic indices. In the present study, an attempt has been made to assess the skill of various indices and parameters and to propose suitable threshold values in forecasting the occurrence of thunderstorm activity at Kolkata. The thermodynamic indices and parameters used in the present study are lifted index (LI), K index (KI), severe weather threat index (SWEAT), total totals index (TTI), convective available potential energy (CAPE), deep convection index (DCI), humidity index (HI), Boyden index (BI), dew point temperature at 850 hpa (DEW), relative humidity at 700 hpa (RH), and bulk Richardson number (BRN). Validation of the suggested threshold values of indices was conducted on the days of thunderstorm activity. It was found that one index alone cannot predict the occurrence of thunderstorm over Kolkata region. The present study suggests that the indices with highest skill for thunderstorm prediction are KI, DCI, SWEAT, DEW, HI, RH, LI, TTI, while the prediction efficiency is poor for CAPE, BRN, and BI. Observed values of these indices also reveal that scattered, multi-cellular thunderstorms are possible over Kolkata during pre-monsoon months.

AB - The pre-monsoon convective atmosphere over Kolkata (22.52°N, 88.37°E) during STORM field phase 2006–2008 is investigated using 12 UTC radiosonde data and thermodynamic indices. In the present study, an attempt has been made to assess the skill of various indices and parameters and to propose suitable threshold values in forecasting the occurrence of thunderstorm activity at Kolkata. The thermodynamic indices and parameters used in the present study are lifted index (LI), K index (KI), severe weather threat index (SWEAT), total totals index (TTI), convective available potential energy (CAPE), deep convection index (DCI), humidity index (HI), Boyden index (BI), dew point temperature at 850 hpa (DEW), relative humidity at 700 hpa (RH), and bulk Richardson number (BRN). Validation of the suggested threshold values of indices was conducted on the days of thunderstorm activity. It was found that one index alone cannot predict the occurrence of thunderstorm over Kolkata region. The present study suggests that the indices with highest skill for thunderstorm prediction are KI, DCI, SWEAT, DEW, HI, RH, LI, TTI, while the prediction efficiency is poor for CAPE, BRN, and BI. Observed values of these indices also reveal that scattered, multi-cellular thunderstorms are possible over Kolkata during pre-monsoon months.

KW - Thermodynamic indices

KW - Thunderstorms

KW - Skill scores

U2 - 10.1007/s11069-010-9582-x

DO - 10.1007/s11069-010-9582-x

M3 - Journal article

VL - 56

SP - 681

EP - 698

JO - Natural Hazards

JF - Natural Hazards

SN - 0921-030X

IS - 3

ER -

Research

Links

Text available via DOI:

Keywords