Rights statement: This is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Journal of International Economics. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Journal of International Economics, 105, 2017 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2016.12.001
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Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Suspiciously timed trade disputes
AU - Conconi, Paola
AU - DeRemer, David R.
AU - Kirchsteiger, Georg
AU - Trimarchi, Lorenzo
AU - Zanardi, Maurizio
N1 - This is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Journal of International Economics. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Journal of International Economics, 105, 2017 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2016.12.001
PY - 2017/3
Y1 - 2017/3
N2 - This paper shows that electoral incentives crucially affect the initiation of trade disputes. Focusing on WTO disputes filed by the United States during the 1995-2014 period, we find that U.S. presidents are more likely to initiate a dispute in the year preceding their re-election. Moreover, U.S. trade disputes are more likely to involve industries that are important in swing states. To explain these regularities, we develop a theoretical model in which re-election motives can lead an incumbent politician to file trade disputes to appeal to voters motivated by reciprocity.
AB - This paper shows that electoral incentives crucially affect the initiation of trade disputes. Focusing on WTO disputes filed by the United States during the 1995-2014 period, we find that U.S. presidents are more likely to initiate a dispute in the year preceding their re-election. Moreover, U.S. trade disputes are more likely to involve industries that are important in swing states. To explain these regularities, we develop a theoretical model in which re-election motives can lead an incumbent politician to file trade disputes to appeal to voters motivated by reciprocity.
KW - trade disputes
KW - elections
KW - reciprocity
U2 - 10.1016/j.jinteco.2016.12.001
DO - 10.1016/j.jinteco.2016.12.001
M3 - Journal article
VL - 105
SP - 57
EP - 76
JO - Journal of International Economics
JF - Journal of International Economics
SN - 0022-1996
ER -