Rights statement: This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Pavlidis, E. G., Paya, I. and Peel, D. A. (2017), TESTING FOR SPECULATIVE BUBBLES USING SPOT AND FORWARD PRICES. International Economic Review, 58: 1191–1226. doi:10.1111/iere.12249 which has been published in final form at http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/iere.12249/abstract This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance With Wiley Terms and Conditions for self-archiving.
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Final published version
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Testing for speculative bubbles using spot and forward prices
AU - Pavlidis, Efthymios
AU - Paya, Ivan
AU - Peel, David Alan
N1 - This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Pavlidis, E. G., Paya, I. and Peel, D. A. (2017), TESTING FOR SPECULATIVE BUBBLES USING SPOT AND FORWARD PRICES. International Economic Review, 58: 1191–1226. doi:10.1111/iere.12249 which has been published in final form at http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/iere.12249/abstract This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance With Wiley Terms and Conditions for self-archiving.
PY - 2017/11
Y1 - 2017/11
N2 - The probabilistic structure of periodically collapsing bubbles creates a gap between future spot and forward (or futures) asset prices in small samples. By exploiting this fact, we use two econometric methods, namely, the recursive unit root method of Phillips, Shi, and Yu (2015a,b) and the rolling regression method of Fama (1984), for detecting bubbles. Both methods do not rely on a particular model of asset price determination, they are robust to an explosive root in the process for market fundamentals, and are accompanied by a date-stamping strategy. By applying these methods to the German mark-US dollar and British pound-US dollar exchange rates, we provide evidence in favor of speculative bubbles in the foreign exchange market during the interwar German hyperinflation, but not during the recent floating-rate period. A further application to the S&P 500 index supports the existence of speculative bubbles in the US equity market.
AB - The probabilistic structure of periodically collapsing bubbles creates a gap between future spot and forward (or futures) asset prices in small samples. By exploiting this fact, we use two econometric methods, namely, the recursive unit root method of Phillips, Shi, and Yu (2015a,b) and the rolling regression method of Fama (1984), for detecting bubbles. Both methods do not rely on a particular model of asset price determination, they are robust to an explosive root in the process for market fundamentals, and are accompanied by a date-stamping strategy. By applying these methods to the German mark-US dollar and British pound-US dollar exchange rates, we provide evidence in favor of speculative bubbles in the foreign exchange market during the interwar German hyperinflation, but not during the recent floating-rate period. A further application to the S&P 500 index supports the existence of speculative bubbles in the US equity market.
U2 - 10.1111/iere.12249
DO - 10.1111/iere.12249
M3 - Journal article
VL - 58
SP - 1191
EP - 1226
JO - International Economic Review
JF - International Economic Review
SN - 0020-6598
IS - 4
ER -