TY - JOUR

T1 - The influence of ozone precursor emissions from four world regions on tropospheric composition and radiative climate forcing

AU - Fry, Meridith M.

AU - Naik, Vaishali

AU - West, J. Jason

AU - Schwarzkopf, M. Daniel

AU - Fiore, Arlene M.

AU - Collins, William J.

AU - Dentener, Frank J.

AU - Shindell, Drew T.

AU - Atherton, Cyndi

AU - Bergmann, Daniel

AU - Duncan, Bryan N.

AU - Hess, Peter

AU - MacKenzie, Ian A.

AU - Marmer, Elina

AU - Schultz, Martin G.

AU - Szopa, Sophie

AU - Wild, Oliver

AU - Zeng, Guang

N1 - Copyright 2012 by the American Geophysical Union

PY - 2012/4/13

Y1 - 2012/4/13

N2 - Ozone (O-3) precursor emissions influence regional and global climate and air quality through changes in tropospheric O-3 and oxidants, which also influence methane (CH4) and sulfate aerosols (SO42-). We examine changes in the tropospheric composition of O-3, CH4, SO42- and global net radiative forcing (RF) for 20% reductions in global CH4 burden and in anthropogenic O-3 precursor emissions (NOx, NMVOC, and CO) from four regions (East Asia, Europe and Northern Africa, North America, and South Asia) using the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Source-Receptor global chemical transport model (CTM) simulations, assessing uncertainty (mean +/- 1 standard deviation) across multiple CTMs. We evaluate steady state O-3 responses, including long-term feedbacks via CH4. With a radiative transfer model that includes greenhouse gases and the aerosol direct effect, we find that regional NOx reductions produce global, annually averaged positive net RFs (0.2 +/- 0.6 to 1.7 +/- 2 mWm(-2)/TgN yr(-1)), with some variation among models. Negative net RFs result from reductions in global CH4 (-162.6 +/- 2 mWm(-2) for a change from 1760 to 1408 ppbv CH4) and regional NMVOC (-0.4 +/- 0.2 to -0.7 +/- 0.2 mWm(-2)/Tg C yr(-1)) and CO emissions (-0.13 +/- 0.02 to -0.15 +/- 0.02 mWm(-2)/Tg CO yr(-1)). Including the effect of O-3 on CO2 uptake by vegetation likely makes these net RFs more negative by -1.9 to -5.2 mWm(-2)/Tg N yr(-1), -0.2 to -0.7 mWm(-2)/Tg C yr(-1), and -0.02 to -0.05 mWm(-2)/Tg CO yr(-1). Net RF impacts reflect the distribution of concentration changes, where RF is affected locally by changes in SO42-, regionally to hemispherically by O-3, and globally by CH4. Global annual average SO42- responses to oxidant changes range from 0.4 +/- 2.6 to -1.9 +/- 1.3 Gg for NOx reductions, 0.1 +/- 1.2 to -0.9 +/- 0.8 Gg for NMVOC reductions, and -0.09 +/- 0.5 to -0.9 +/- 0.8 Gg for CO reductions, suggesting additional research is needed. The 100-year global warming potentials (GWP(100)) are calculated for the global CH4 reduction (20.9 +/- 3.7 without stratospheric O-3 or water vapor, 24.2 +/- 4.2 including those components), and for the regional NOx, NMVOC, and CO reductions (-18.7 +/- 25.9 to -1.9 +/- 8.7 for NOx, 4.8 +/- 1.7 to 8.3 +/- 1.9 for NMVOC, and 1.5 +/- 0.4 to 1.7 +/- 0.5 for CO). Variation in GWP(100) for NOx, NMVOC, and CO suggests that regionally specific GWPs may be necessary and could support the inclusion

AB - Ozone (O-3) precursor emissions influence regional and global climate and air quality through changes in tropospheric O-3 and oxidants, which also influence methane (CH4) and sulfate aerosols (SO42-). We examine changes in the tropospheric composition of O-3, CH4, SO42- and global net radiative forcing (RF) for 20% reductions in global CH4 burden and in anthropogenic O-3 precursor emissions (NOx, NMVOC, and CO) from four regions (East Asia, Europe and Northern Africa, North America, and South Asia) using the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Source-Receptor global chemical transport model (CTM) simulations, assessing uncertainty (mean +/- 1 standard deviation) across multiple CTMs. We evaluate steady state O-3 responses, including long-term feedbacks via CH4. With a radiative transfer model that includes greenhouse gases and the aerosol direct effect, we find that regional NOx reductions produce global, annually averaged positive net RFs (0.2 +/- 0.6 to 1.7 +/- 2 mWm(-2)/TgN yr(-1)), with some variation among models. Negative net RFs result from reductions in global CH4 (-162.6 +/- 2 mWm(-2) for a change from 1760 to 1408 ppbv CH4) and regional NMVOC (-0.4 +/- 0.2 to -0.7 +/- 0.2 mWm(-2)/Tg C yr(-1)) and CO emissions (-0.13 +/- 0.02 to -0.15 +/- 0.02 mWm(-2)/Tg CO yr(-1)). Including the effect of O-3 on CO2 uptake by vegetation likely makes these net RFs more negative by -1.9 to -5.2 mWm(-2)/Tg N yr(-1), -0.2 to -0.7 mWm(-2)/Tg C yr(-1), and -0.02 to -0.05 mWm(-2)/Tg CO yr(-1). Net RF impacts reflect the distribution of concentration changes, where RF is affected locally by changes in SO42-, regionally to hemispherically by O-3, and globally by CH4. Global annual average SO42- responses to oxidant changes range from 0.4 +/- 2.6 to -1.9 +/- 1.3 Gg for NOx reductions, 0.1 +/- 1.2 to -0.9 +/- 0.8 Gg for NMVOC reductions, and -0.09 +/- 0.5 to -0.9 +/- 0.8 Gg for CO reductions, suggesting additional research is needed. The 100-year global warming potentials (GWP(100)) are calculated for the global CH4 reduction (20.9 +/- 3.7 without stratospheric O-3 or water vapor, 24.2 +/- 4.2 including those components), and for the regional NOx, NMVOC, and CO reductions (-18.7 +/- 25.9 to -1.9 +/- 8.7 for NOx, 4.8 +/- 1.7 to 8.3 +/- 1.9 for NMVOC, and 1.5 +/- 0.4 to 1.7 +/- 0.5 for CO). Variation in GWP(100) for NOx, NMVOC, and CO suggests that regionally specific GWPs may be necessary and could support the inclusion

KW - Ozone

KW - methane

KW - sulphate aerosol

KW - Climate

KW - radiative forcing

KW - Tropospheric composition

KW - intercontinent transport

U2 - 10.1029/2011JD017134

DO - 10.1029/2011JD017134

M3 - Journal article

VL - 117

SP - -

JO - Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres

JF - Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres

SN - 0747-7309

IS - D7

M1 - D07306

ER -