TY - JOUR

T1 - The potential distribution of bioenergy crops in the UK under present and future climate

AU - Bellarby, Jessica

AU - Wattenbach, Martin

AU - Tuck, Gill

AU - Glendining, Margaret J.

AU - Smith, Pete

PY - 2010

Y1 - 2010

N2 - We have predicted the potential distribution of 26 bioenergy crops in the UK, based on the simple model described by Tuck et al. [1]. The model has been applied at a 5 km resolution using the UKCIP02 model for scenarios at Low, Medium-Low, Medium-High and High emissions. In the analysis of the results the limitations for crop growth are assigned to elevation, temperature, high and low rainfall. Most of the crops currently grown are predicted to remain prevalent in the UK. A number of crops are suitable for introduction to the UK under a changing climate, whereas others retreat to northern parts of the UK. The greatest changes are expected in England. The simplicity of the model means that it has a relatively high uncertainty, with minor modifications to the model leading to quite different results. Nevertheless, it is well suited for identifying areas and crops that are most likely to be affected by the greatest changes. It has been noted that Miscanthus and Short Rotation Coppice (SRC) willow and poplar, which are currently regarded as highly suitable for UK conditions, may be less suited to southern areas in the future, where, for example, kenaf could have a greater potential. Further investigations are required to reduce uncertainty associated with the projections based on this simple model and to make conclusions more firmly.

AB - We have predicted the potential distribution of 26 bioenergy crops in the UK, based on the simple model described by Tuck et al. [1]. The model has been applied at a 5 km resolution using the UKCIP02 model for scenarios at Low, Medium-Low, Medium-High and High emissions. In the analysis of the results the limitations for crop growth are assigned to elevation, temperature, high and low rainfall. Most of the crops currently grown are predicted to remain prevalent in the UK. A number of crops are suitable for introduction to the UK under a changing climate, whereas others retreat to northern parts of the UK. The greatest changes are expected in England. The simplicity of the model means that it has a relatively high uncertainty, with minor modifications to the model leading to quite different results. Nevertheless, it is well suited for identifying areas and crops that are most likely to be affected by the greatest changes. It has been noted that Miscanthus and Short Rotation Coppice (SRC) willow and poplar, which are currently regarded as highly suitable for UK conditions, may be less suited to southern areas in the future, where, for example, kenaf could have a greater potential. Further investigations are required to reduce uncertainty associated with the projections based on this simple model and to make conclusions more firmly.

KW - Bioenergy crops

KW - Biofuel crops

KW - UKCIP02 scenarios

KW - Modelling

KW - Climate change

KW - GIS mapping

U2 - 10.1016/j.biombioe.2010.08.009

DO - 10.1016/j.biombioe.2010.08.009

M3 - Journal article

VL - 24

SP - 1935

EP - 1945

JO - Biomass and Bioenergy

JF - Biomass and Bioenergy

SN - 0961-9534

IS - 12

ER -