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Time series forecasting methodology for multiple-step-ahead prediction

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Publication date1/12/2005
Host publicationProceedings of the IASTED International Conference on Computational Intelligence
Pages456-461
Number of pages6
<mark>Original language</mark>English
EventIASTED International Conference on Computational Intelligence - Calgary, AB, Canada
Duration: 4/07/20056/07/2005

Conference

ConferenceIASTED International Conference on Computational Intelligence
Country/TerritoryCanada
CityCalgary, AB
Period4/07/056/07/05

Publication series

NameProceedings of the IASTED International Conference on Computational Intelligence
Volume2005

Conference

ConferenceIASTED International Conference on Computational Intelligence
Country/TerritoryCanada
CityCalgary, AB
Period4/07/056/07/05

Abstract

This paper presents a time series forecasting methodology and applies it to generate multiple-step-ahead predictions for the direction of change of the daily exchange rate of the Japanese Yen against the US Dollar. The proposed methodology draws from the disciplines of chaotic time series analysis, clustering, and artificial neural networks. In brief, clustering is applied to identify neighborhoods in the reconstructed state space of the system; and subsequently neural networks are trained to model the dynamics of each neighborhood separately. The results obtained through this approach are promising.