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Towards risk-based water resources planning in England and Wales under a changing climate

Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

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Towards risk-based water resources planning in England and Wales under a changing climate. / Hall, J. W.; Watts, G.; Keil, M. et al.
In: Water and Environment Journal, Vol. 26, No. 1, 03.2012, p. 118-129.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

Harvard

Hall, JW, Watts, G, Keil, M, de Vial, L, Street, R, Conlan, K, O'Connell, PE, Beven, KJ & Kilsby, CG 2012, 'Towards risk-based water resources planning in England and Wales under a changing climate', Water and Environment Journal, vol. 26, no. 1, pp. 118-129. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747-6593.2011.00271.x

APA

Hall, J. W., Watts, G., Keil, M., de Vial, L., Street, R., Conlan, K., O'Connell, P. E., Beven, K. J., & Kilsby, C. G. (2012). Towards risk-based water resources planning in England and Wales under a changing climate. Water and Environment Journal, 26(1), 118-129. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747-6593.2011.00271.x

Vancouver

Hall JW, Watts G, Keil M, de Vial L, Street R, Conlan K et al. Towards risk-based water resources planning in England and Wales under a changing climate. Water and Environment Journal. 2012 Mar;26(1):118-129. doi: 10.1111/j.1747-6593.2011.00271.x

Author

Hall, J. W. ; Watts, G. ; Keil, M. et al. / Towards risk-based water resources planning in England and Wales under a changing climate. In: Water and Environment Journal. 2012 ; Vol. 26, No. 1. pp. 118-129.

Bibtex

@article{4af60465290f48c891157adde309e7e9,
title = "Towards risk-based water resources planning in England and Wales under a changing climate",
abstract = "The publication of the UKCP09 climate change projections for the United Kingdom provides the opportunity for more rigorous inclusion of climate change uncertainty in water resources planning. We set out how the current approach to incorporating climate change and other uncertainties in water resources planning may be updated to incorporate the UKCP09 projections. In an uncertain future, the frequency with which customers will experience water shortages cannot be predicted for sure, so a water company cannot predict definitely whether it will or will not fulfil its Level of Service commitments. We therefore go on to propose that the probability of failing to meet Level of Service (for given populations of customers) provides an appropriate metric of risk, which conveniently summarises the uncertainties associated with supply and demand, including climate change uncertainties. We sketch out how this risk metric can be calculated based upon simulation modelling of the water resource system.",
keywords = "risk, water supply and demand, water resources, UNCERTAINTY, uncertainty, climate change",
author = "Hall, {J. W.} and G. Watts and M. Keil and {de Vial}, L. and R. Street and K. Conlan and O'Connell, {P. E.} and Beven, {K. J.} and Kilsby, {C. G.}",
year = "2012",
month = mar,
doi = "10.1111/j.1747-6593.2011.00271.x",
language = "English",
volume = "26",
pages = "118--129",
journal = "Water and Environment Journal",
issn = "1747-6585",
publisher = "Wiley-Blackwell",
number = "1",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Towards risk-based water resources planning in England and Wales under a changing climate

AU - Hall, J. W.

AU - Watts, G.

AU - Keil, M.

AU - de Vial, L.

AU - Street, R.

AU - Conlan, K.

AU - O'Connell, P. E.

AU - Beven, K. J.

AU - Kilsby, C. G.

PY - 2012/3

Y1 - 2012/3

N2 - The publication of the UKCP09 climate change projections for the United Kingdom provides the opportunity for more rigorous inclusion of climate change uncertainty in water resources planning. We set out how the current approach to incorporating climate change and other uncertainties in water resources planning may be updated to incorporate the UKCP09 projections. In an uncertain future, the frequency with which customers will experience water shortages cannot be predicted for sure, so a water company cannot predict definitely whether it will or will not fulfil its Level of Service commitments. We therefore go on to propose that the probability of failing to meet Level of Service (for given populations of customers) provides an appropriate metric of risk, which conveniently summarises the uncertainties associated with supply and demand, including climate change uncertainties. We sketch out how this risk metric can be calculated based upon simulation modelling of the water resource system.

AB - The publication of the UKCP09 climate change projections for the United Kingdom provides the opportunity for more rigorous inclusion of climate change uncertainty in water resources planning. We set out how the current approach to incorporating climate change and other uncertainties in water resources planning may be updated to incorporate the UKCP09 projections. In an uncertain future, the frequency with which customers will experience water shortages cannot be predicted for sure, so a water company cannot predict definitely whether it will or will not fulfil its Level of Service commitments. We therefore go on to propose that the probability of failing to meet Level of Service (for given populations of customers) provides an appropriate metric of risk, which conveniently summarises the uncertainties associated with supply and demand, including climate change uncertainties. We sketch out how this risk metric can be calculated based upon simulation modelling of the water resource system.

KW - risk

KW - water supply and demand

KW - water resources

KW - UNCERTAINTY

KW - uncertainty

KW - climate change

U2 - 10.1111/j.1747-6593.2011.00271.x

DO - 10.1111/j.1747-6593.2011.00271.x

M3 - Journal article

VL - 26

SP - 118

EP - 129

JO - Water and Environment Journal

JF - Water and Environment Journal

SN - 1747-6585

IS - 1

ER -