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Uncertainties in extreme wave height estimates for hurricane-dominated regions

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articlepeer-review

Published
<mark>Journal publication date</mark>2007
<mark>Journal</mark>Journal of Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering
Issue number4
Volume129
Number of pages6
Pages (from-to)300-305
Publication StatusPublished
<mark>Original language</mark>English

Abstract

Inherent uncertainties in estimation of extreme wave heights in hurricane-dominated regions are explored using data from the GOMOS Gulf of Mexico hindcast for 1900-2005. In particular the effect of combining correlated values from a neighborhood of 72 grid locations on extreme wave height estimation is quantified. We show that, based on small data samples, extreme wave heights are underestimated and site averaging usually improves estimates. We present a bootstrapping approach to evaluate uncertainty in extreme wave height estimates. We also argue in favor of modeling supplementary indicators for extreme wave characteristics, such as a high percentile (95%) of the distribution a 100-year significant wave height, in addition to its most probable value, especially for environments where the distribution of 100-year significant wave height is strongly skewed. Copyright © 2007 by ASME.