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    Rights statement: This is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in International Journal of Forecasting. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in International Journal of Forecasting, 35, 1, 2019 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2017.12.006

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Use and misuse of information in supply chain forecasting of promotion effects

Research output: Contribution to Journal/MagazineJournal articlepeer-review

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Use and misuse of information in supply chain forecasting of promotion effects. / Fildes, Robert Alan; Goodwin, Paul; Onkal, Dilek.
In: International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 35, No. 1, 01.2019, p. 144-156.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/MagazineJournal articlepeer-review

Harvard

Fildes, RA, Goodwin, P & Onkal, D 2019, 'Use and misuse of information in supply chain forecasting of promotion effects', International Journal of Forecasting, vol. 35, no. 1, pp. 144-156. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2017.12.006

APA

Vancouver

Fildes RA, Goodwin P, Onkal D. Use and misuse of information in supply chain forecasting of promotion effects. International Journal of Forecasting. 2019 Jan;35(1):144-156. Epub 2018 Feb 19. doi: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2017.12.006

Author

Fildes, Robert Alan ; Goodwin, Paul ; Onkal, Dilek. / Use and misuse of information in supply chain forecasting of promotion effects. In: International Journal of Forecasting. 2019 ; Vol. 35, No. 1. pp. 144-156.

Bibtex

@article{7600e1c0b7384834ac80f7ecd073a035,
title = "Use and misuse of information in supply chain forecasting of promotion effects",
abstract = "Demand forecasting is critical to sales and operations planning (S&OP), but the effects of sales promotions can be difficult to forecast. Typically, a baseline statistical forecast is judgmentally adjusted on receipt of information from different departments. However, much of this information either has no predictive value or its value is unknown. Research into base rate discounting has suggested that such information may distract forecasters from the average uplift and reduce accuracy. This has been investigated in situations in which forecasters were able to adjust the statistical forecasts for promotions via a forecasting support system (FSS). In two ecologically valid experiments, forecasters were provided with the mean level of promotion uplift, a baseline statistical forecast, and quantitative and qualitative information. However, the forecasters were distracted from the base rate and misinterpreted the information available to them. These findings have important implications for the design of organizational S&OP processes, and for the implementation of FSSs. ",
keywords = "Behavioral operations, Forecaster behavior, Information effects, Judgmental forecasting, Sales and operations planning",
author = "Fildes, {Robert Alan} and Paul Goodwin and Dilek Onkal",
note = "This is the author{\textquoteright}s version of a work that was accepted for publication in International Journal of Forecasting. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in International Journal of Forecasting, 35, 1, 2019 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2017.12.006",
year = "2019",
month = jan,
doi = "10.1016/j.ijforecast.2017.12.006",
language = "English",
volume = "35",
pages = "144--156",
journal = "International Journal of Forecasting",
issn = "0169-2070",
publisher = "Elsevier Science B.V.",
number = "1",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Use and misuse of information in supply chain forecasting of promotion effects

AU - Fildes, Robert Alan

AU - Goodwin, Paul

AU - Onkal, Dilek

N1 - This is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in International Journal of Forecasting. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in International Journal of Forecasting, 35, 1, 2019 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2017.12.006

PY - 2019/1

Y1 - 2019/1

N2 - Demand forecasting is critical to sales and operations planning (S&OP), but the effects of sales promotions can be difficult to forecast. Typically, a baseline statistical forecast is judgmentally adjusted on receipt of information from different departments. However, much of this information either has no predictive value or its value is unknown. Research into base rate discounting has suggested that such information may distract forecasters from the average uplift and reduce accuracy. This has been investigated in situations in which forecasters were able to adjust the statistical forecasts for promotions via a forecasting support system (FSS). In two ecologically valid experiments, forecasters were provided with the mean level of promotion uplift, a baseline statistical forecast, and quantitative and qualitative information. However, the forecasters were distracted from the base rate and misinterpreted the information available to them. These findings have important implications for the design of organizational S&OP processes, and for the implementation of FSSs.

AB - Demand forecasting is critical to sales and operations planning (S&OP), but the effects of sales promotions can be difficult to forecast. Typically, a baseline statistical forecast is judgmentally adjusted on receipt of information from different departments. However, much of this information either has no predictive value or its value is unknown. Research into base rate discounting has suggested that such information may distract forecasters from the average uplift and reduce accuracy. This has been investigated in situations in which forecasters were able to adjust the statistical forecasts for promotions via a forecasting support system (FSS). In two ecologically valid experiments, forecasters were provided with the mean level of promotion uplift, a baseline statistical forecast, and quantitative and qualitative information. However, the forecasters were distracted from the base rate and misinterpreted the information available to them. These findings have important implications for the design of organizational S&OP processes, and for the implementation of FSSs.

KW - Behavioral operations

KW - Forecaster behavior

KW - Information effects

KW - Judgmental forecasting

KW - Sales and operations planning

U2 - 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2017.12.006

DO - 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2017.12.006

M3 - Journal article

VL - 35

SP - 144

EP - 156

JO - International Journal of Forecasting

JF - International Journal of Forecasting

SN - 0169-2070

IS - 1

ER -