Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Using forecasts of forecasters to forecast
AU - Nolte, Ingmar
AU - Pohlmeier, Winfried
PY - 2007/1
Y1 - 2007/1
N2 - Quantification techniques are popular methods in empirical research for aggregating the qualitative predictions at the microlevel into a single figure. In this paper, we analyze the forecasting performance of various methods that are based on the qualitative predictions of financial experts for major financial variables and macroeconomic aggregates. Based on the Centre of European Economic Research's Financial Markets Survey, a monthly qualitative survey of around 330 financial experts, we analyze the out-of-sample predictive quality of probability methods and regression methods. Using the modified Diebold-Mariano test of Harvey, Leybourne and Newbold (Harvey, D., Leybourne, S., & Newbold, P. (1997). Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors. International Journal of Forecasting, 13, 281-291), we compare the forecasts based on survey methods with the forecasting performance of standard linear time series approaches and simple random walk forecasts.
AB - Quantification techniques are popular methods in empirical research for aggregating the qualitative predictions at the microlevel into a single figure. In this paper, we analyze the forecasting performance of various methods that are based on the qualitative predictions of financial experts for major financial variables and macroeconomic aggregates. Based on the Centre of European Economic Research's Financial Markets Survey, a monthly qualitative survey of around 330 financial experts, we analyze the out-of-sample predictive quality of probability methods and regression methods. Using the modified Diebold-Mariano test of Harvey, Leybourne and Newbold (Harvey, D., Leybourne, S., & Newbold, P. (1997). Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors. International Journal of Forecasting, 13, 281-291), we compare the forecasts based on survey methods with the forecasting performance of standard linear time series approaches and simple random walk forecasts.
KW - forecasting quality
KW - qualitative survey data
KW - quantification methods
KW - linear time series models
KW - turning points
KW - INFLATION-EXPECTATIONS
KW - PRICE EXPECTATIONS
KW - RESPONSES
U2 - 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2006.05.001
DO - 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2006.05.001
M3 - Journal article
VL - 23
SP - 15
EP - 28
JO - International Journal of Forecasting
JF - International Journal of Forecasting
SN - 0169-2070
IS - 1
ER -