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WHO SAGE COVID WG modelling call: Modelling the impacts of current and variant adapted vaccines on VOC transmission dynamics

Project: Research

Description

WHO funded project aimed at considering COVID vaccine priorities across different countries worldwide. This includes:
1. Shifting vaccination priorities with high infection-derived immunity.
2. Cost-effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines (compared to other vaccines).
3. Impact of VoC on vaccination priorities.
4. What would be the increased public health impact of a variant-adapted booster compared to boosting with current vaccines?
5. Under what assumptions about vaccine and variant characteristics would it be cost-effective to switch to variant adapted vaccines for boosting?

Key findings

We show that the population structures of different countries can have a pronounced effect on the impact of booster vaccination, even when identical booster vaccination targeting strategies are adopted. However, under the assumed transmission model, prioritising older individuals for booster vaccination consistently leads to the most favourable public health outcomes in every setting considered. This remains true for a range of assumptions about booster vaccine supply and timing, and for different assumed policy objectives of booster vaccination.
StatusFinished
Effective start/end date1/01/231/09/23
  • Moore, Sam (CoPI)
  • Thompson , Robin (Principal Investigator)
  • Bouros, Ioana (Research Associate)
  • Keeling, Matt (Team Member)
  • Hill, Ed (Team Member)