Rights statement: Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union
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Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Multimodel simulations of carbon monoxide
T2 - comparison with observations and projected near-future changes
AU - Shindell, D. T.
AU - Faluvegi, G.
AU - Stevenson, D. S.
AU - Krol, M. C.
AU - Emmons, L. K.
AU - Lamarque, J. -F.
AU - Petron, G.
AU - Dentener, F. J.
AU - Ellingsen, K.
AU - Schultz, M. G.
AU - Wild, O.
AU - Amann, M.
AU - Atherton, C. S.
AU - Bergmann, D. J.
AU - Bey, I.
AU - Butler, T.
AU - Cofala, J.
AU - Collins, W. J.
AU - Derwent, R. G.
AU - Doherty, R. M.
AU - Drevet, J.
AU - Eskes, H. J.
AU - Fiore, A. M.
AU - Gauss, M.
AU - Hauglustaine, D. A.
AU - Horowitz, L. W.
AU - Isaksen, I. S. A.
AU - Lawrence, M. G.
AU - Montanaro, V.
AU - Mueller, J. -F.
AU - Pitari, G.
AU - Prather, M. J.
AU - Pyle, J. A.
AU - Rast, S.
AU - Rodriguez, J. M.
AU - Sanderson, M. G.
AU - Savage, N. H.
AU - Strahan, S. E.
AU - Sudo, K.
AU - Szopa, S.
AU - Unger, N.
AU - van Noije, T. P. C.
AU - Zeng, G.
PY - 2006/10/14
Y1 - 2006/10/14
N2 - We analyze present-day and future carbon monoxide (CO) simulations in 26 state-of-the-art atmospheric chemistry models run to study future air quality and climate change. In comparison with near-global satellite observations from the MOPITT instrument and local surface measurements, the models show large underestimates of Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropical CO, while typically performing reasonably well elsewhere. The results suggest that year-round emissions, probably from fossil fuel burning in east Asia and seasonal biomass burning emissions in south-central Africa, are greatly underestimated in current inventories such as IIASA and EDGAR3.2. Variability among models is large, likely resulting primarily from intermodel differences in representations and emissions of nonmethane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) and in hydrologic cycles, which affect OH and soluble hydrocarbon intermediates. Global mean projections of the 2030 CO response to emissions changes are quite robust. Global mean midtropospheric (500 hPa) CO increases by 12.6 +/- 3.5 ppbv (16%) for the high-emissions (A2) scenario, by 1.7 +/- 1.8 ppbv (2%) for the midrange (CLE) scenario, and decreases by 8.1 +/- 2.3 ppbv (11%) for the low-emissions (MFR) scenario. Projected 2030 climate changes decrease global 500 hPa CO by 1.4 +/- 1.4 ppbv. Local changes can be much larger. In response to climate change, substantial effects are seen in the tropics, but intermodel variability is quite large. The regional CO responses to emissions changes are robust across models, however. These range from decreases of 10-20 ppbv over much of the industrialized NH for the CLE scenario to CO increases worldwide and year-round under A2, with the largest changes over central Africa (20-30 ppbv), southern Brazil (20-35 ppbv) and south and east Asia (30-70 ppbv). The trajectory of future emissions thus has the potential to profoundly affect air quality over most of the world's populated areas.
AB - We analyze present-day and future carbon monoxide (CO) simulations in 26 state-of-the-art atmospheric chemistry models run to study future air quality and climate change. In comparison with near-global satellite observations from the MOPITT instrument and local surface measurements, the models show large underestimates of Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropical CO, while typically performing reasonably well elsewhere. The results suggest that year-round emissions, probably from fossil fuel burning in east Asia and seasonal biomass burning emissions in south-central Africa, are greatly underestimated in current inventories such as IIASA and EDGAR3.2. Variability among models is large, likely resulting primarily from intermodel differences in representations and emissions of nonmethane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) and in hydrologic cycles, which affect OH and soluble hydrocarbon intermediates. Global mean projections of the 2030 CO response to emissions changes are quite robust. Global mean midtropospheric (500 hPa) CO increases by 12.6 +/- 3.5 ppbv (16%) for the high-emissions (A2) scenario, by 1.7 +/- 1.8 ppbv (2%) for the midrange (CLE) scenario, and decreases by 8.1 +/- 2.3 ppbv (11%) for the low-emissions (MFR) scenario. Projected 2030 climate changes decrease global 500 hPa CO by 1.4 +/- 1.4 ppbv. Local changes can be much larger. In response to climate change, substantial effects are seen in the tropics, but intermodel variability is quite large. The regional CO responses to emissions changes are robust across models, however. These range from decreases of 10-20 ppbv over much of the industrialized NH for the CLE scenario to CO increases worldwide and year-round under A2, with the largest changes over central Africa (20-30 ppbv), southern Brazil (20-35 ppbv) and south and east Asia (30-70 ppbv). The trajectory of future emissions thus has the potential to profoundly affect air quality over most of the world's populated areas.
KW - CHEMICAL-TRANSPORT MODEL
KW - STRATOSPHERE-TROPOSPHERE EXCHANGE
KW - GENERAL-CIRCULATION MODEL
KW - AIRCRAFT MOZAIC DATA
KW - NONMETHANE HYDROCARBONS
KW - OZONE SIMULATIONS
KW - METHANE EMISSIONS
KW - WESTERN PACIFIC
KW - CLIMATE-CHANGE
KW - 3-D MODELS
U2 - 10.1029/2006JD007100
DO - 10.1029/2006JD007100
M3 - Journal article
VL - 111
SP - -
JO - Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
JF - Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
SN - 0747-7309
IS - D19
M1 - D19306
ER -