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Tropical forests in the Americas are changing too slowly to track climate change

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  • Jesús Aguirre-Gutiérrez
  • Sandra Díaz
  • Sami W Rifai
  • Jose Javier Corral-Rivas
  • Maria Guadalupe Nava-Miranda
  • Roy González-M
  • Ana Belén Hurtado-M
  • Norma Salinas Revilla
  • Emilio Vilanova
  • Everton Almeida
  • Edmar Almeida de Oliveira
  • Esteban Alvarez-Davila
  • Luciana F Alves
  • Ana Cristina Segalin de Andrade
  • Antonio Carlos Lola da Costa
  • Simone Aparecida Vieira
  • Luiz Aragão
  • Eric Arets
  • Gerardo A Aymard C
  • Yvonne Vanessa Bakker
  • Timothy R Baker
  • Olaf Bánki
  • Christopher Baraloto
  • Plínio Barbosa de Camargo
  • Lilian Blanc
  • Damien Bonal
  • Frans Bongers
  • Kauane Maiara Bordin
  • Roel Brienen
  • Foster Brown
  • Nayane Cristina C S Prestes
  • Carolina V Castilho
  • Sabina Cerruto Ribeiro
  • Fernanda Coelho de Souza
  • James A Comiskey
  • Fernando Cornejo Valverde
  • Sandra Cristina Müller
  • Richarlly da Costa Silva
  • Julio Daniel do Vale
  • Vitor de Andrade Kamimura
  • Ricardo de Oliveira Perdiz
  • Jhon Del Aguila Pasquel
  • Géraldine Derroire
  • Anthony Di Fiore
  • Mathias Disney
  • William Farfan-Rios
  • Sophie Fauset
  • Ted R Feldpausch
  • Rafael Flora Ramos
  • Gerardo Flores Llampazo
  • Valéria Forni Martins
  • Claire Fortunel
  • Karina Garcia Cabrera
  • Jorcely Gonçalves Barroso
  • Bruno Hérault
  • Rafael Herrera
  • Eurídice N Honorio Coronado
  • Isau Huamantupa-Chuquimaco
  • John J Pipoly
  • Katia Janaina Zanini
  • Eliana Jiménez
  • Carlos A Joly
  • Michelle Kalamandeen
  • Joice Klipel
  • Aurora Levesley
  • Wilmar Lopez Oviedo
  • William E Magnusson
  • Rubens Manoel Dos Santos
  • Beatriz Schwantes Marimon
  • Ben Hur Marimon-Junior
  • Simone Matias de Almeida Reis
  • Omar Aurelio Melo Cruz
  • Abel Monteagudo Mendoza
  • Paulo Morandi
  • Robert Muscarella
  • Henrique Nascimento
  • David A Neill
  • Imma Oliveras Menor
  • Walter A Palacios
  • Sonia Palacios-Ramos
  • Nadir Carolina Pallqui Camacho
  • Guido Pardo
  • R Toby Pennington
  • Luciana de Oliveira Pereira
  • Georgia Pickavance
  • Rayana Caroline Picolotto
  • Nigel C A Pitman
  • Adriana Prieto
  • Carlos Quesada
  • Hirma Ramírez-Angulo
  • Maxime Réjou-Méchain
  • Zorayda Restrepo Correa
  • José Manuel Reyna Huaymacari
  • Carlos Reynel Rodriguez
  • Gonzalo Rivas-Torres
  • Anand Roopsind
  • Agustín Rudas
  • Beatriz Salgado Negret
  • Masha T van der Sande
  • Flávia Delgado Santana
  • Flavio Antonio Maës Santos
  • Rodrigo Scarton Bergamin
  • Miles R Silman
  • Javier Silva Espejo
  • Marcos Silveira
  • Martin J P Sullivan
  • Varun Swamy
  • Joey Talbot
  • John J Terborgh
  • Peter J van der Meer
  • Geertje van der Heijden
  • Bert van Ulft
  • Rodolfo Vasquez Martinez
  • Laura Vedovato
  • Jason Vleminckx
  • Vincent Antoine Vos
  • Verginia Wortel
  • Pieter A Zuidema
  • Joeri A Zwerts
  • Susan G W Laurance
  • William F Laurance
  • Jerôme Chave
  • James W Dalling
  • Lourens Poorter
  • Brian J Enquist
  • Hans Ter Steege
  • Oliver L Phillips
  • David Galbraith
  • Yadvinder Malhi
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Article numbereadl5414
<mark>Journal publication date</mark>7/03/2025
<mark>Journal</mark>Science
Issue number6738
Volume387
Publication StatusPublished
<mark>Original language</mark>English

Abstract

Understanding the capacity of forests to adapt to climate change is of pivotal importance for conservation science, yet this is still widely unknown. This knowledge gap is particularly acute in high-biodiversity tropical forests. Here, we examined how tropical forests of the Americas have shifted community trait composition in recent decades as a response to changes in climate. Based on historical trait-climate relationships, we found that, overall, the studied functional traits show shifts of less than 8% of what would be expected given the observed changes in climate. However, the recruit assemblage shows shifts of 21% relative to climate change expectation. The most diverse forests on Earth are changing in functional trait composition but at a rate that is fundamentally insufficient to track climate change.