A statistical analysis of eruptive activity on Mount Etna, Sicily

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A statistical analysis of eruptive activity on Mount Etna, Sicily. / Smethurst, Lucy; James, Mike R.; Pinkerton, Harry et al.
In: Geophysical Journal International, Vol. 179, No. 1, 10.2009, p. 655-666.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

Harvard

Smethurst, L, James, MR , Pinkerton, H & Tawn, JA 2009, 'A statistical analysis of eruptive activity on Mount Etna, Sicily', Geophysical Journal International, vol. 179, no. 1, pp. 655-666. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2009.04286.x

APA

Smethurst, L., James, M. R., Pinkerton, H., & Tawn, J. A. (2009). A statistical analysis of eruptive activity on Mount Etna, Sicily. Geophysical Journal International, 179(1), 655-666. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2009.04286.x

Vancouver

Smethurst L, James MR , Pinkerton H , Tawn JA. A statistical analysis of eruptive activity on Mount Etna, Sicily. Geophysical Journal International. 2009 Oct;179(1):655-666. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2009.04286.x

Author

Smethurst, Lucy ; James, Mike R. ; Pinkerton, Harry et al. / A statistical analysis of eruptive activity on Mount Etna, Sicily. In: Geophysical Journal International. 2009 ; Vol. 179, No. 1. pp. 655-666.

Bibtex

@article{2b92598082cd4fbf9ae7cdffe7a4d4e2,

title = "A statistical analysis of eruptive activity on Mount Etna, Sicily",

abstract = "A rigorous analysis of the timing and location of flank eruptions of Mount Etna on Sicily is important for the creation of hazard maps of the densely populated area surrounding the volcano. In this paper, we analyse the temporal, volumetric and spatial data on eruptive activity on Etna. Our analyses are based on the two most recent and robust historical data catalogues of flank eruption activity on Etna, with one from 1669 to 2008 and the other from 1610 to 2008. We use standard statistical methodology and modelling techniques, though a number of features are new to the analysis of eruption data. Our temporal analysis reveals that flank eruptions on Mount Etna between 1610 and 2008 follow an inhomogeneous Poisson process, with intensity of eruptions increasing nearly linearly since the mid-1900s. Our temporal analysis reveals no evidence of cyclicity over this period. An analysis of volumetric lava flow rates shows a marked increase in activity since 1971. This increase, which coincides with the formation of the Southeast Crater (SEC), appears to be related to increased activity on and around the SEC. This has significant implications for hazard analysis on Etna.",

keywords = "Time series analysis, Spatial analysis, Volcanic hazards and risks",

author = "Lucy Smethurst and James, {Mike R.} and Harry Pinkerton and Tawn, {Jonathan A.}",

year = "2009",

month = oct,

doi = "10.1111/j.1365-246X.2009.04286.x",

language = "English",

volume = "179",

pages = "655--666",

journal = "Geophysical Journal International",

issn = "1365-246X",

publisher = "Wiley-Blackwell",

number = "1",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - A statistical analysis of eruptive activity on Mount Etna, Sicily

AU - Smethurst, Lucy

AU - James, Mike R.

AU - Pinkerton, Harry

AU - Tawn, Jonathan A.

PY - 2009/10

Y1 - 2009/10

N2 - A rigorous analysis of the timing and location of flank eruptions of Mount Etna on Sicily is important for the creation of hazard maps of the densely populated area surrounding the volcano. In this paper, we analyse the temporal, volumetric and spatial data on eruptive activity on Etna. Our analyses are based on the two most recent and robust historical data catalogues of flank eruption activity on Etna, with one from 1669 to 2008 and the other from 1610 to 2008. We use standard statistical methodology and modelling techniques, though a number of features are new to the analysis of eruption data. Our temporal analysis reveals that flank eruptions on Mount Etna between 1610 and 2008 follow an inhomogeneous Poisson process, with intensity of eruptions increasing nearly linearly since the mid-1900s. Our temporal analysis reveals no evidence of cyclicity over this period. An analysis of volumetric lava flow rates shows a marked increase in activity since 1971. This increase, which coincides with the formation of the Southeast Crater (SEC), appears to be related to increased activity on and around the SEC. This has significant implications for hazard analysis on Etna.

AB - A rigorous analysis of the timing and location of flank eruptions of Mount Etna on Sicily is important for the creation of hazard maps of the densely populated area surrounding the volcano. In this paper, we analyse the temporal, volumetric and spatial data on eruptive activity on Etna. Our analyses are based on the two most recent and robust historical data catalogues of flank eruption activity on Etna, with one from 1669 to 2008 and the other from 1610 to 2008. We use standard statistical methodology and modelling techniques, though a number of features are new to the analysis of eruption data. Our temporal analysis reveals that flank eruptions on Mount Etna between 1610 and 2008 follow an inhomogeneous Poisson process, with intensity of eruptions increasing nearly linearly since the mid-1900s. Our temporal analysis reveals no evidence of cyclicity over this period. An analysis of volumetric lava flow rates shows a marked increase in activity since 1971. This increase, which coincides with the formation of the Southeast Crater (SEC), appears to be related to increased activity on and around the SEC. This has significant implications for hazard analysis on Etna.

KW - Time series analysis

KW - Spatial analysis

KW - Volcanic hazards and risks

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=70349981886&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2009.04286.x

DO - 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2009.04286.x

M3 - Journal article

VL - 179

SP - 655

EP - 666

JO - Geophysical Journal International

JF - Geophysical Journal International

SN - 1365-246X

IS - 1

ER -

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