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An evaluation of characteristics of teams in association football using a Markov process model

Research output: Working paper

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Abstract

This paper proposes a statistical model of a football match which is useful to provide insights of characteristics of teams. We evaluate the characteristics by means of maximum likelihood estimators for factors such as home advantage, offensive and defensive strength and their interactions, by taking account of not only goals but also possession of the ball. We build the model based on the real data of the 1999-2000 season of the English Premier League and illustrate the characteristics of the teams in ways which allow us to visualise offensive and defensive strength, preference for playing at home and preference for particular opposition teams.