Research output: Working paper
Research output: Working paper
}
TY - UNPB
T1 - An evaluation of characteristics of teams in association football using a Markov process model
AU - Hirotsu, N
AU - Wright, M B
PY - 2003
Y1 - 2003
N2 - This paper proposes a statistical model of a football match which is useful to provide insights of characteristics of teams. We evaluate the characteristics by means of maximum likelihood estimators for factors such as home advantage, offensive and defensive strength and their interactions, by taking account of not only goals but also possession of the ball. We build the model based on the real data of the 1999-2000 season of the English Premier League and illustrate the characteristics of the teams in ways which allow us to visualise offensive and defensive strength, preference for playing at home and preference for particular opposition teams.
AB - This paper proposes a statistical model of a football match which is useful to provide insights of characteristics of teams. We evaluate the characteristics by means of maximum likelihood estimators for factors such as home advantage, offensive and defensive strength and their interactions, by taking account of not only goals but also possession of the ball. We build the model based on the real data of the 1999-2000 season of the English Premier League and illustrate the characteristics of the teams in ways which allow us to visualise offensive and defensive strength, preference for playing at home and preference for particular opposition teams.
KW - football
KW - Markov process
KW - maximum likelihood method
KW - Poisson model
KW - soccer
KW - sports
M3 - Working paper
T3 - Management Science Working Paper Series
BT - An evaluation of characteristics of teams in association football using a Markov process model
PB - The Department of Management Science
CY - Lancaster University
ER -