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Submitted manuscript
Licence: CC BY: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
Final published version
Licence: CC BY: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Climate policy implications of nonlinear decline of Arctic land permafrost and other cryosphere elements
AU - Yumashev, Dmitry
AU - Hope, Chris
AU - Schaefer, Kevin
AU - Riemann-Campe, Kathrin
AU - Iglesias-Suarez, Fernando
AU - Jafarov, Elchin
AU - Burke, Eleanor
AU - Young, Paul John
AU - Elshorbany, Yasin
AU - Whiteman, Gail
PY - 2019/4/23
Y1 - 2019/4/23
N2 - Arctic feedbacks accelerate climate change through carbon releases from thawing permafrost and higher solar absorption from reductions in the surface albedo, following loss of sea ice and land snow. Here, we include dynamic emulators of complex physical models in the integrated assessment model PAGE-ICE to explore nonlinear transitions in the Arctic feedbacks and their subsequent impacts on the global climate and economy under the Paris Agreement scenarios. The permafrost feedback is increasingly positive in warmer climates, while the albedo feedback weakens as the ice and snow melt. Combined, these two factors lead to significant increases in the mean discounted economic effect of climate change: +4.0% ($24.8 trillion) under the 1.5 °C scenario, +5.5% ($33.8 trillion) under the 2 °C scenario, and +4.8% ($66.9 trillion) under mitigation levels consistent with the current national pledges. Considering the nonlinear Arctic feedbacks makes the 1.5 °C target marginally more economically attractive than the 2 °C target, although both are statistically equivalent.
AB - Arctic feedbacks accelerate climate change through carbon releases from thawing permafrost and higher solar absorption from reductions in the surface albedo, following loss of sea ice and land snow. Here, we include dynamic emulators of complex physical models in the integrated assessment model PAGE-ICE to explore nonlinear transitions in the Arctic feedbacks and their subsequent impacts on the global climate and economy under the Paris Agreement scenarios. The permafrost feedback is increasingly positive in warmer climates, while the albedo feedback weakens as the ice and snow melt. Combined, these two factors lead to significant increases in the mean discounted economic effect of climate change: +4.0% ($24.8 trillion) under the 1.5 °C scenario, +5.5% ($33.8 trillion) under the 2 °C scenario, and +4.8% ($66.9 trillion) under mitigation levels consistent with the current national pledges. Considering the nonlinear Arctic feedbacks makes the 1.5 °C target marginally more economically attractive than the 2 °C target, although both are statistically equivalent.
KW - climate change
KW - cryosphere
KW - Arctic
KW - permafrost
KW - sea ice
KW - tipping elements
KW - climate impacts
KW - climate policy
KW - Paris agreement
U2 - 10.20944/preprints201712.0107.v1
DO - 10.20944/preprints201712.0107.v1
M3 - Journal article
VL - 2019
JO - Nature Communications
JF - Nature Communications
SN - 2041-1723
IS - 10
M1 - 1900
ER -