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Climate policy implications of nonlinear decline of Arctic land permafrost and other cryosphere elements

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Climate policy implications of nonlinear decline of Arctic land permafrost and other cryosphere elements. / Yumashev, Dmitry; Hope, Chris; Schaefer, Kevin; Riemann-Campe, Kathrin; Iglesias-Suarez, Fernando; Jafarov, Elchin; Burke, Eleanor; Young, Paul John; Elshorbany, Yasin; Whiteman, Gail.

In: Nature Communications, Vol. 2019, No. 10, 1900, 23.04.2019.

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articlepeer-review

Harvard

Yumashev, D, Hope, C, Schaefer, K, Riemann-Campe, K, Iglesias-Suarez, F, Jafarov, E, Burke, E, Young, PJ, Elshorbany, Y & Whiteman, G 2019, 'Climate policy implications of nonlinear decline of Arctic land permafrost and other cryosphere elements', Nature Communications, vol. 2019, no. 10, 1900. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints201712.0107.v1, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-09863-x

APA

Yumashev, D., Hope, C., Schaefer, K., Riemann-Campe, K., Iglesias-Suarez, F., Jafarov, E., Burke, E., Young, P. J., Elshorbany, Y., & Whiteman, G. (2019). Climate policy implications of nonlinear decline of Arctic land permafrost and other cryosphere elements. Nature Communications, 2019(10), [1900]. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints201712.0107.v1, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-09863-x

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Author

Yumashev, Dmitry ; Hope, Chris ; Schaefer, Kevin ; Riemann-Campe, Kathrin ; Iglesias-Suarez, Fernando ; Jafarov, Elchin ; Burke, Eleanor ; Young, Paul John ; Elshorbany, Yasin ; Whiteman, Gail. / Climate policy implications of nonlinear decline of Arctic land permafrost and other cryosphere elements. In: Nature Communications. 2019 ; Vol. 2019, No. 10.

Bibtex

@article{d3c2192c4ada43f4a89397fd64e4abcb,
title = "Climate policy implications of nonlinear decline of Arctic land permafrost and other cryosphere elements",
abstract = "Arctic feedbacks accelerate climate change through carbon releases from thawing permafrost and higher solar absorption from reductions in the surface albedo, following loss of sea ice and land snow. Here, we include dynamic emulators of complex physical models in the integrated assessment model PAGE-ICE to explore nonlinear transitions in the Arctic feedbacks and their subsequent impacts on the global climate and economy under the Paris Agreement scenarios. The permafrost feedback is increasingly positive in warmer climates, while the albedo feedback weakens as the ice and snow melt. Combined, these two factors lead to significant increases in the mean discounted economic effect of climate change: +4.0% ($24.8 trillion) under the 1.5 °C scenario, +5.5% ($33.8 trillion) under the 2 °C scenario, and +4.8% ($66.9 trillion) under mitigation levels consistent with the current national pledges. Considering the nonlinear Arctic feedbacks makes the 1.5 °C target marginally more economically attractive than the 2 °C target, although both are statistically equivalent.",
keywords = "climate change, cryosphere, Arctic, permafrost, sea ice, tipping elements, climate impacts, climate policy, Paris agreement",
author = "Dmitry Yumashev and Chris Hope and Kevin Schaefer and Kathrin Riemann-Campe and Fernando Iglesias-Suarez and Elchin Jafarov and Eleanor Burke and Young, {Paul John} and Yasin Elshorbany and Gail Whiteman",
year = "2019",
month = apr,
day = "23",
doi = "10.20944/preprints201712.0107.v1",
language = "English",
volume = "2019",
journal = "Nature Communications",
issn = "2041-1723",
publisher = "Nature Publishing Group",
number = "10",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Climate policy implications of nonlinear decline of Arctic land permafrost and other cryosphere elements

AU - Yumashev, Dmitry

AU - Hope, Chris

AU - Schaefer, Kevin

AU - Riemann-Campe, Kathrin

AU - Iglesias-Suarez, Fernando

AU - Jafarov, Elchin

AU - Burke, Eleanor

AU - Young, Paul John

AU - Elshorbany, Yasin

AU - Whiteman, Gail

PY - 2019/4/23

Y1 - 2019/4/23

N2 - Arctic feedbacks accelerate climate change through carbon releases from thawing permafrost and higher solar absorption from reductions in the surface albedo, following loss of sea ice and land snow. Here, we include dynamic emulators of complex physical models in the integrated assessment model PAGE-ICE to explore nonlinear transitions in the Arctic feedbacks and their subsequent impacts on the global climate and economy under the Paris Agreement scenarios. The permafrost feedback is increasingly positive in warmer climates, while the albedo feedback weakens as the ice and snow melt. Combined, these two factors lead to significant increases in the mean discounted economic effect of climate change: +4.0% ($24.8 trillion) under the 1.5 °C scenario, +5.5% ($33.8 trillion) under the 2 °C scenario, and +4.8% ($66.9 trillion) under mitigation levels consistent with the current national pledges. Considering the nonlinear Arctic feedbacks makes the 1.5 °C target marginally more economically attractive than the 2 °C target, although both are statistically equivalent.

AB - Arctic feedbacks accelerate climate change through carbon releases from thawing permafrost and higher solar absorption from reductions in the surface albedo, following loss of sea ice and land snow. Here, we include dynamic emulators of complex physical models in the integrated assessment model PAGE-ICE to explore nonlinear transitions in the Arctic feedbacks and their subsequent impacts on the global climate and economy under the Paris Agreement scenarios. The permafrost feedback is increasingly positive in warmer climates, while the albedo feedback weakens as the ice and snow melt. Combined, these two factors lead to significant increases in the mean discounted economic effect of climate change: +4.0% ($24.8 trillion) under the 1.5 °C scenario, +5.5% ($33.8 trillion) under the 2 °C scenario, and +4.8% ($66.9 trillion) under mitigation levels consistent with the current national pledges. Considering the nonlinear Arctic feedbacks makes the 1.5 °C target marginally more economically attractive than the 2 °C target, although both are statistically equivalent.

KW - climate change

KW - cryosphere

KW - Arctic

KW - permafrost

KW - sea ice

KW - tipping elements

KW - climate impacts

KW - climate policy

KW - Paris agreement

U2 - 10.20944/preprints201712.0107.v1

DO - 10.20944/preprints201712.0107.v1

M3 - Journal article

VL - 2019

JO - Nature Communications

JF - Nature Communications

SN - 2041-1723

IS - 10

M1 - 1900

ER -