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Estimating the market potential with pre-release buzz

Research output: Working paper

Unpublished

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Estimating the market potential with pre-release buzz. / Schaer, Oliver; Kourentzes, Nikolaos; Fildes, Robert Alan.

Department of Management Science, Lancaster University, 2019. p. 1-39.

Research output: Working paper

Harvard

Schaer, O, Kourentzes, N & Fildes, RA 2019 'Estimating the market potential with pre-release buzz' Department of Management Science, Lancaster University, pp. 1-39.

APA

Schaer, O., Kourentzes, N., & Fildes, R. A. (2019). Estimating the market potential with pre-release buzz. (pp. 1-39). Department of Management Science, Lancaster University.

Vancouver

Schaer O, Kourentzes N, Fildes RA. Estimating the market potential with pre-release buzz. Department of Management Science, Lancaster University. 2019 Feb 3, p. 1-39.

Author

Schaer, Oliver ; Kourentzes, Nikolaos ; Fildes, Robert Alan. / Estimating the market potential with pre-release buzz. Department of Management Science, Lancaster University, 2019. pp. 1-39

Bibtex

@techreport{45ce2669f980409085e96622369133ba,
title = "Estimating the market potential with pre-release buzz",
abstract = "With increased competition and shorter product life-cycles, forecasting the life-cycle sales of new products prior to launch is becoming increasingly important to marketers and demand planners. Our study contributes to the literature on new product adoption using analogies by augmenting information from previous generations with pre-release search traffic. In contrast to existing research, which relies on pre-release buzz information only for the launch phase, we consider life-cycle sales. First, we propose a model of pre-release buzz and market potential, establishing the connection between the two. Then, we validate this relationship with an empirical experiment on sequential video game sales. Our finding support that pre-release buzz contains predictive information up to 17 weeks prior to release and can increase life-cycle sales forecast accuracy up to 20%. The explanatory power of pre-release buzz varies across product generations. This evolution opens up marketing opportunities and highlights why it is important to manage pre-release buzz.",
keywords = "Google Trends, diffusion, pre-launch, analogy, new product",
author = "Oliver Schaer and Nikolaos Kourentzes and Fildes, {Robert Alan}",
year = "2019",
month = feb
day = "3",
language = "English",
pages = "1--39",
publisher = "Department of Management Science, Lancaster University",
type = "WorkingPaper",
institution = "Department of Management Science, Lancaster University",

}

RIS

TY - UNPB

T1 - Estimating the market potential with pre-release buzz

AU - Schaer, Oliver

AU - Kourentzes, Nikolaos

AU - Fildes, Robert Alan

PY - 2019/2/3

Y1 - 2019/2/3

N2 - With increased competition and shorter product life-cycles, forecasting the life-cycle sales of new products prior to launch is becoming increasingly important to marketers and demand planners. Our study contributes to the literature on new product adoption using analogies by augmenting information from previous generations with pre-release search traffic. In contrast to existing research, which relies on pre-release buzz information only for the launch phase, we consider life-cycle sales. First, we propose a model of pre-release buzz and market potential, establishing the connection between the two. Then, we validate this relationship with an empirical experiment on sequential video game sales. Our finding support that pre-release buzz contains predictive information up to 17 weeks prior to release and can increase life-cycle sales forecast accuracy up to 20%. The explanatory power of pre-release buzz varies across product generations. This evolution opens up marketing opportunities and highlights why it is important to manage pre-release buzz.

AB - With increased competition and shorter product life-cycles, forecasting the life-cycle sales of new products prior to launch is becoming increasingly important to marketers and demand planners. Our study contributes to the literature on new product adoption using analogies by augmenting information from previous generations with pre-release search traffic. In contrast to existing research, which relies on pre-release buzz information only for the launch phase, we consider life-cycle sales. First, we propose a model of pre-release buzz and market potential, establishing the connection between the two. Then, we validate this relationship with an empirical experiment on sequential video game sales. Our finding support that pre-release buzz contains predictive information up to 17 weeks prior to release and can increase life-cycle sales forecast accuracy up to 20%. The explanatory power of pre-release buzz varies across product generations. This evolution opens up marketing opportunities and highlights why it is important to manage pre-release buzz.

KW - Google Trends

KW - diffusion

KW - pre-launch

KW - analogy

KW - new product

M3 - Working paper

SP - 1

EP - 39

BT - Estimating the market potential with pre-release buzz

PB - Department of Management Science, Lancaster University

ER -