We have over 12,000 students, from over 100 countries, within one of the safest campuses in the UK


93% of Lancaster students go into work or further study within six months of graduating

Home > Research > Publications & Outputs > Exact filtering for partially-oberved continuou...
View graph of relations

« Back

Exact filtering for partially-oberved continuous-time models.

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal article


Journal publication date08/2004
JournalJournal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology)
Number of pages19
Original languageEnglish


Summary. The forward–backward algorithm is an exact filtering algorithm which can efficiently calculate likelihoods, and which can be used to simulate from posterior distributions. Using a simple result which relates gamma random variables with different rates, we show how the forward–backward algorithm can be used to calculate the distribution of a sum of gamma random variables, and to simulate from their joint distribution given their sum. One application is to calculating the density of the time of a specific event in a Markov process, as this time is the sum of exponentially distributed interevent times. This enables us to apply the forward–backward algorithm to a range of new problems. We demonstrate our method on three problems: calculating likelihoods and simulating allele frequencies under a non-neutral population genetic model, analysing a stochastic epidemic model and simulating speciation times in phylogenetics.