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Research output: Working paper
Research output: Working paper
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TY - UNPB
T1 - Exuberance in the U.K. Regional Housing Markets
AU - Pavlidis, Efthymios
AU - Paya, Ivan
AU - Peel, David Alan
AU - Yusupova, Alisa Yevgenyevna
PY - 2017/5
Y1 - 2017/5
N2 - We combine the estimation of a structural model with inference based on recently developed recursive unit root tests to analyse the behaviour of regional real estate markets in the U.K. over the last four decades. We find two episodes, the late 1980s and the early and mid-2000s, when all regional house prices experienced explosive dynamics above and beyond factors such as housing supply relative to demographics, income, regional spillovers and credit availability. This is the first econometric analysis to provide evidence that would endorse the view that ‘bubbles’, with a particular spatial pattern, are a feature of UK regional housing markets.
AB - We combine the estimation of a structural model with inference based on recently developed recursive unit root tests to analyse the behaviour of regional real estate markets in the U.K. over the last four decades. We find two episodes, the late 1980s and the early and mid-2000s, when all regional house prices experienced explosive dynamics above and beyond factors such as housing supply relative to demographics, income, regional spillovers and credit availability. This is the first econometric analysis to provide evidence that would endorse the view that ‘bubbles’, with a particular spatial pattern, are a feature of UK regional housing markets.
KW - Regional house prices
KW - Structural housing model
KW - Cointegration
KW - Generalised supremum ADF
KW - Speculative bubbles
M3 - Working paper
T3 - Economics Working Paper Series
BT - Exuberance in the U.K. Regional Housing Markets
PB - Lancaster University, Department of Economics
CY - Lancaster
ER -