Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Flood-plain mapping: a critical discussion of deterministic and probabilistic approaches
AU - Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
AU - Schumann, Guy
AU - Bates, Paul D.
AU - Freer, Jim E.
AU - Beven, Keith J.
PY - 2010
Y1 - 2010
N2 - Different methodologies for flood-plain mapping are analysed and discussed by comparing deterministic and probabilistic approaches using hydrodynamic numerical solutions. In order to facilitate the critical discussion, state-of-art techniques in the field of flood inundation modelling are applied to a specific test site (River Dee, UK). Specifically, different flood-plain maps are derived for this test site. A first map is built by applying an advanced deterministic approach: use of a fully two-dimensional finite element model (TELEMAC-2D), calibrated against a historical flood extent, to derive a 1-in-100 year flood inundation map. A second map is derived by using a probabilistic approach: use of a simple raster-based inundation model (LISFLOOD-FP) to derive an uncertain flood extent map predicting the 1-in-100 year event conditioned on the extent of the 2006 flood. The flood-plain maps are then compared and the advantages and disadvantages of the two different approaches are critically discussed.
AB - Different methodologies for flood-plain mapping are analysed and discussed by comparing deterministic and probabilistic approaches using hydrodynamic numerical solutions. In order to facilitate the critical discussion, state-of-art techniques in the field of flood inundation modelling are applied to a specific test site (River Dee, UK). Specifically, different flood-plain maps are derived for this test site. A first map is built by applying an advanced deterministic approach: use of a fully two-dimensional finite element model (TELEMAC-2D), calibrated against a historical flood extent, to derive a 1-in-100 year flood inundation map. A second map is derived by using a probabilistic approach: use of a simple raster-based inundation model (LISFLOOD-FP) to derive an uncertain flood extent map predicting the 1-in-100 year event conditioned on the extent of the 2006 flood. The flood-plain maps are then compared and the advantages and disadvantages of the two different approaches are critically discussed.
KW - INFORMATION
KW - RISK
KW - uncertainty analysis
KW - EQUIFINALITY
KW - flood hazard
KW - MODEL CALIBRATION
KW - RADAR IMAGERY
KW - FLOWS
KW - flood-plain mapping
KW - FINITE-ELEMENT
KW - UNCERTAINTY
KW - hydraulic models
KW - INUNDATION PROBABILITIES
KW - METHODOLOGY
U2 - 10.1080/02626661003683389
DO - 10.1080/02626661003683389
M3 - Journal article
VL - 55
SP - 364
EP - 376
JO - Hydrological Sciences Journal
JF - Hydrological Sciences Journal
SN - 0262-6667
IS - 3
ER -