TY - JOUR

T1 - Flood-plain mapping: a critical discussion of deterministic and probabilistic approaches

AU - Di Baldassarre, Giuliano

AU - Schumann, Guy

AU - Bates, Paul D.

AU - Freer, Jim E.

AU - Beven, Keith J.

PY - 2010

Y1 - 2010

N2 - Different methodologies for flood-plain mapping are analysed and discussed by comparing deterministic and probabilistic approaches using hydrodynamic numerical solutions. In order to facilitate the critical discussion, state-of-art techniques in the field of flood inundation modelling are applied to a specific test site (River Dee, UK). Specifically, different flood-plain maps are derived for this test site. A first map is built by applying an advanced deterministic approach: use of a fully two-dimensional finite element model (TELEMAC-2D), calibrated against a historical flood extent, to derive a 1-in-100 year flood inundation map. A second map is derived by using a probabilistic approach: use of a simple raster-based inundation model (LISFLOOD-FP) to derive an uncertain flood extent map predicting the 1-in-100 year event conditioned on the extent of the 2006 flood. The flood-plain maps are then compared and the advantages and disadvantages of the two different approaches are critically discussed.

AB - Different methodologies for flood-plain mapping are analysed and discussed by comparing deterministic and probabilistic approaches using hydrodynamic numerical solutions. In order to facilitate the critical discussion, state-of-art techniques in the field of flood inundation modelling are applied to a specific test site (River Dee, UK). Specifically, different flood-plain maps are derived for this test site. A first map is built by applying an advanced deterministic approach: use of a fully two-dimensional finite element model (TELEMAC-2D), calibrated against a historical flood extent, to derive a 1-in-100 year flood inundation map. A second map is derived by using a probabilistic approach: use of a simple raster-based inundation model (LISFLOOD-FP) to derive an uncertain flood extent map predicting the 1-in-100 year event conditioned on the extent of the 2006 flood. The flood-plain maps are then compared and the advantages and disadvantages of the two different approaches are critically discussed.

KW - INFORMATION

KW - RISK

KW - uncertainty analysis

KW - EQUIFINALITY

KW - flood hazard

KW - MODEL CALIBRATION

KW - RADAR IMAGERY

KW - FLOWS

KW - flood-plain mapping

KW - FINITE-ELEMENT

KW - UNCERTAINTY

KW - hydraulic models

KW - INUNDATION PROBABILITIES

KW - METHODOLOGY

U2 - 10.1080/02626661003683389

DO - 10.1080/02626661003683389

M3 - Journal article

VL - 55

SP - 364

EP - 376

JO - Hydrological Sciences Journal

JF - Hydrological Sciences Journal

SN - 0262-6667

IS - 3

ER -