Final published version
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - On the estimation of ocean engineering design contours
AU - Jonathan, P.
AU - Ewans, K.
AU - Flynn, J.
PY - 2014
Y1 - 2014
N2 - Understanding extreme ocean environments and their interaction with fixed and floating structures is critical for offshore and coastal design. Design contours are useful to describe the joint behavior of environmental, structural loading, and response variables. We compare different forms of design contours, using theory and simulation, and present a new method for joint estimation of contours of constant exceedance probability for a general set of variables. The method is based on a conditional extremes model from the statistics literature, motivated by asymptotic considerations. We simulate under the conditional extremes model to estimate contours of constant exceedance probability. We also use the estimated conditional extremes model to estimate other forms of design contours, including those based on the first-order reliability method (FORM), without needing to specify the functional forms of conditional dependence between variables. We demonstrate the application of new method in estimation of contours of constant exceedance probability using measured and hindcast data from the Northern North Sea, the Gulf of Mexico, and the North West Shelf of Australia, and quantify their uncertainties using a bootstrap analysis. © 2014 by ASME.
AB - Understanding extreme ocean environments and their interaction with fixed and floating structures is critical for offshore and coastal design. Design contours are useful to describe the joint behavior of environmental, structural loading, and response variables. We compare different forms of design contours, using theory and simulation, and present a new method for joint estimation of contours of constant exceedance probability for a general set of variables. The method is based on a conditional extremes model from the statistics literature, motivated by asymptotic considerations. We simulate under the conditional extremes model to estimate contours of constant exceedance probability. We also use the estimated conditional extremes model to estimate other forms of design contours, including those based on the first-order reliability method (FORM), without needing to specify the functional forms of conditional dependence between variables. We demonstrate the application of new method in estimation of contours of constant exceedance probability using measured and hindcast data from the Northern North Sea, the Gulf of Mexico, and the North West Shelf of Australia, and quantify their uncertainties using a bootstrap analysis. © 2014 by ASME.
KW - Ocean engineering
KW - Probability
KW - Structural analysis
KW - Conditional dependence
KW - Engineering design
KW - Exceedance probability
KW - First order reliability methods
KW - Floating structures
KW - North west shelf of australia
KW - Ocean environment
KW - Structural loading
KW - Uncertainty analysis
KW - bootstrapping
KW - design method
KW - fluid-structure interaction
KW - hindcasting
KW - hydraulic structure
KW - hydrotechnical engineering
KW - marine environment
KW - probability
KW - Atlantic Ocean
KW - Australia
KW - Gulf of Mexico
KW - North Sea
U2 - 10.1115/1.4027645
DO - 10.1115/1.4027645
M3 - Journal article
VL - 136
JO - Journal of Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering
JF - Journal of Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering
SN - 0892-7219
IS - 4
M1 - 041101
ER -