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Periodicity, synchronization and persistence in pre-vaccination measles

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal article

Published
Article number20160258
<mark>Journal publication date</mark>8/06/2016
<mark>Journal</mark>Interface
Issue number119
Volume13
Number of pages10
Publication statusPublished
Original languageEnglish

Abstract

We investigate the relationship between periodicity, synchronization and persistence of measles through simulations of geographical spread on the British Isles. We show that the establishment of areas of biennial periodicity depends on the interplay between human mobility and local population size and that locations undergoing biennial cycles tend to be, on average, synchronized in phase. We show however that occurrences of opposition of phase are actually quite common and correspond to stable dynamics. We also show that persistence is strictly related to circulation of the disease in the highly populated area of London and that this ensures survival of the disease even when human mobility drops to extremely low levels.