Final published version
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Periodicity, synchronization and persistence in pre-vaccination measles
AU - Marguta, Ramona
AU - Parisi, Andrea
N1 - © 2016 The Author(s).
PY - 2016/6/8
Y1 - 2016/6/8
N2 - We investigate the relationship between periodicity, synchronization and persistence of measles through simulations of geographical spread on the British Isles. We show that the establishment of areas of biennial periodicity depends on the interplay between human mobility and local population size and that locations undergoing biennial cycles tend to be, on average, synchronized in phase. We show however that occurrences of opposition of phase are actually quite common and correspond to stable dynamics. We also show that persistence is strictly related to circulation of the disease in the highly populated area of London and that this ensures survival of the disease even when human mobility drops to extremely low levels.
AB - We investigate the relationship between periodicity, synchronization and persistence of measles through simulations of geographical spread on the British Isles. We show that the establishment of areas of biennial periodicity depends on the interplay between human mobility and local population size and that locations undergoing biennial cycles tend to be, on average, synchronized in phase. We show however that occurrences of opposition of phase are actually quite common and correspond to stable dynamics. We also show that persistence is strictly related to circulation of the disease in the highly populated area of London and that this ensures survival of the disease even when human mobility drops to extremely low levels.
KW - Humans
KW - Measles
KW - Models, Biological
KW - United Kingdom
KW - Vaccination
KW - Journal Article
KW - Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
U2 - 10.1098/rsif.2016.0258
DO - 10.1098/rsif.2016.0258
M3 - Journal article
C2 - 27278363
VL - 13
JO - Interface
JF - Interface
SN - 1742-5689
IS - 119
M1 - 20160258
ER -