Final published version
Licence: CC BY: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Potential for Zika virus transmission by mosquitoes in temperate climates
AU - Blagrove, M.S.C.
AU - Caminade, C.
AU - Diggle, P.J.
AU - Patterson, E.I.
AU - Sherlock, K.
AU - Chapman, G.E.
AU - Hesson, J.
AU - Metelmann, S.
AU - McCall, P.J.
AU - Lycett, G.
AU - Medlock, J.
AU - Hughes, G.L.
AU - Della Torre, A.
AU - Baylis, M.
PY - 2020/7/8
Y1 - 2020/7/8
N2 - Mosquito-borne Zika virus (ZIKV) transmission has almost exclusively been detected in the tropics despite the distributions of its primary vectors extending farther into temperate regions. Therefore, it is unknown whether ZIKV's range has reached a temperature-dependent limit, or if it can spread into temperate climates. Using field-collected mosquitoes for biological relevance, we found that two common temperate mosquito species, Aedes albopictus and Ochlerotatus detritus, were competent for ZIKV. We orally exposed mosquitoes to ZIKV and held them at between 17 and 31°C, estimated the time required for mosquitoes to become infectious, and applied these data to a ZIKV spatial risk model. We identified a minimum temperature threshold for the transmission of ZIKV by mosquitoes between 17 and 19°C. Using these data, we generated standardized basic reproduction number R0-based risk maps and we derived estimates for the length of the transmission season for recent and future climate conditions. Our standardized R0-based risk maps show potential risk of ZIKV transmission beyond the current observed range in southern USA, southern China and southern European countries. Transmission risk is simulated to increase over southern and Eastern Europe, northern USA and temperate regions of Asia (northern China, southern Japan) in future climate scenarios.
AB - Mosquito-borne Zika virus (ZIKV) transmission has almost exclusively been detected in the tropics despite the distributions of its primary vectors extending farther into temperate regions. Therefore, it is unknown whether ZIKV's range has reached a temperature-dependent limit, or if it can spread into temperate climates. Using field-collected mosquitoes for biological relevance, we found that two common temperate mosquito species, Aedes albopictus and Ochlerotatus detritus, were competent for ZIKV. We orally exposed mosquitoes to ZIKV and held them at between 17 and 31°C, estimated the time required for mosquitoes to become infectious, and applied these data to a ZIKV spatial risk model. We identified a minimum temperature threshold for the transmission of ZIKV by mosquitoes between 17 and 19°C. Using these data, we generated standardized basic reproduction number R0-based risk maps and we derived estimates for the length of the transmission season for recent and future climate conditions. Our standardized R0-based risk maps show potential risk of ZIKV transmission beyond the current observed range in southern USA, southern China and southern European countries. Transmission risk is simulated to increase over southern and Eastern Europe, northern USA and temperate regions of Asia (northern China, southern Japan) in future climate scenarios.
KW - Aedes
KW - climate change
KW - EIP
KW - R0
KW - Zika
KW - Aedes albopictus
KW - article
KW - basic reproduction number
KW - China
KW - detritus
KW - Eastern Europe
KW - Japan
KW - nonhuman
KW - Ochlerotatus
KW - risk assessment
KW - season
KW - simulation
KW - virus transmission
KW - Zika virus
U2 - 10.1098/rspb.2020.0119
DO - 10.1098/rspb.2020.0119
M3 - Journal article
VL - 287
JO - Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
JF - Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
SN - 0962-8452
IS - 1930
M1 - 20200119
ER -