Rights statement: Copyright by the Ecological Society of America
Accepted author manuscript, 8.4 MB, PDF document
Available under license: CC BY-NC: Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License
Final published version
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Social drivers forewarn of marine regime shifts
AU - Hicks, Christina
AU - Crowder, Larry B.
AU - Graham, Nicholas Anthony James
AU - Kittinger, John N.
AU - Le Cornu, Elodie
N1 - Copyright by the Ecological Society of America
PY - 2016/6
Y1 - 2016/6
N2 - Some ecosystems can undergo regime shifts to alternative compositions of species. Although ecological indicators can identify approaching regime shifts, we propose that rapid changes in the social drivers underlying ecosystem change may provide additional and potentially earlier indicators of impending shifts. We demonstrate this by reconstructing the underlying social drivers of four iconic marine regime shifts: Pacific kelp forests, Northwest Atlantic continental shelf, Jamaican coral reefs, and the Chesapeake Bay estuary. In all cases, a range of social drivers – including opening of lucrative markets, technological innovations, and policies that enhanced the driver – ultimately prompted these ecosystem shifts. Drawing on examples emerging from environmental management practice, we present three practical recommendations for using social drivers as early indicators: monitor social change, determine social trigger points, and identify policy responses. We argue that accounting for the underlying social drivers of ecosystem change could improve decision making.
AB - Some ecosystems can undergo regime shifts to alternative compositions of species. Although ecological indicators can identify approaching regime shifts, we propose that rapid changes in the social drivers underlying ecosystem change may provide additional and potentially earlier indicators of impending shifts. We demonstrate this by reconstructing the underlying social drivers of four iconic marine regime shifts: Pacific kelp forests, Northwest Atlantic continental shelf, Jamaican coral reefs, and the Chesapeake Bay estuary. In all cases, a range of social drivers – including opening of lucrative markets, technological innovations, and policies that enhanced the driver – ultimately prompted these ecosystem shifts. Drawing on examples emerging from environmental management practice, we present three practical recommendations for using social drivers as early indicators: monitor social change, determine social trigger points, and identify policy responses. We argue that accounting for the underlying social drivers of ecosystem change could improve decision making.
U2 - 10.1002/fee.1284
DO - 10.1002/fee.1284
M3 - Journal article
VL - 14
SP - 252
EP - 260
JO - Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment
JF - Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment
SN - 1540-9295
IS - 5
ER -