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Statistical inference and model selection for the 1861 Hagelloch measles epidemic.

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal article


<mark>Journal publication date</mark>04/2004
Issue number2
Number of pages13
Pages (from-to)249-261
<mark>Original language</mark>English


A stochastic epidemic model is proposed which incorporates heterogeneity in the spread of a disease through a population. In particular, three factors are considered: the spatial location of an individual's home and the household and school class to which the individual belongs. The model is applied to an extremely informative measles data set and the model is compared with nested models, which incorporate some, but not all, of the aforementioned factors. A reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is then introduced which assists in selecting the most appropriate model to fit the data.