We have over 12,000 students, from over 100 countries, within one of the safest campuses in the UK


97% of Lancaster students go into work or further study within six months of graduating

Home > Research > Publications & Outputs > Statistical inference and model selection for t...
View graph of relations

« Back

Statistical inference and model selection for the 1861 Hagelloch measles epidemic.

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal article


<mark>Journal publication date</mark>04/2004
Number of pages13
<mark>Original language</mark>English


A stochastic epidemic model is proposed which incorporates heterogeneity in the spread of a disease through a population. In particular, three factors are considered: the spatial location of an individual's home and the household and school class to which the individual belongs. The model is applied to an extremely informative measles data set and the model is compared with nested models, which incorporate some, but not all, of the aforementioned factors. A reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is then introduced which assists in selecting the most appropriate model to fit the data.