Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Statistical inference and model selection for the 1861 Hagelloch measles epidemic.
AU - Neal, Peter J.
AU - Roberts, Gareth O.
PY - 2004/4
Y1 - 2004/4
N2 - A stochastic epidemic model is proposed which incorporates heterogeneity in the spread of a disease through a population. In particular, three factors are considered: the spatial location of an individual's home and the household and school class to which the individual belongs. The model is applied to an extremely informative measles data set and the model is compared with nested models, which incorporate some, but not all, of the aforementioned factors. A reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is then introduced which assists in selecting the most appropriate model to fit the data.
AB - A stochastic epidemic model is proposed which incorporates heterogeneity in the spread of a disease through a population. In particular, three factors are considered: the spatial location of an individual's home and the household and school class to which the individual belongs. The model is applied to an extremely informative measles data set and the model is compared with nested models, which incorporate some, but not all, of the aforementioned factors. A reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is then introduced which assists in selecting the most appropriate model to fit the data.
KW - Model choice
KW - Reversible jump MCMC
KW - Stochastic epidemics.
U2 - 10.1093/biostatistics/5.2.249
DO - 10.1093/biostatistics/5.2.249
M3 - Journal article
VL - 5
SP - 249
EP - 261
JO - Biostatistics
JF - Biostatistics
SN - 1468-4357
IS - 2
ER -